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31 March 2008

31-03-08 Chat script with Mr Ashwini Gujral.

moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us.

Ashwani Gujral: gm all

mipravin: s next target for ril?

Ashwani Gujral: reliance- supp 2220, resis 2430

hmmn: good afternoon morning moserbear buy 160rs qty 1000qty shall i hold or not

hmmn: good afternoon morning moserbear buy 160rs qty 1000qty shall i hold or not

Ashwani Gujral: moser baer- supp 139, resis 175

shekar2004: good afternoon suggest me a stratgy on nifty should I go short on nifty at this level ?

Ashwani Gujral: we r short from 4858

mrsachindixit: hi AG : got any clue on market direction ?

Ashwani Gujral: back to 4600-4650

absolute05: larsen at curret levels.

Ashwani Gujral: larsen- supp 2925, resis 3384

TAPS310: ashwani Sir What stocks can be bought For Short term?

Ashwani Gujral: interest rate sensitives r best short

mipravin: what about hindustan oil? should i buy it now? or wait for fall

Ashwani Gujral: for the long term u can, keep 95 stop

pyt_2008: Hello Sir,I am short on Nifty at 4980 level.Should i cover or wait for more downside.please suggest

Ashwani Gujral: hold till 4600-4650

mnjhuy79: Sir, Can you please suggest some good stocks to buy?

Ashwani Gujral: do not buy too many stocks rite now, if u have to, u can go short

vishfin: Sir, I have invested in fudamentally good co. however becoz of ongoing correction in mkt, the value of portfoilo is down by 40%. Please advise me whether I should hold them or should i exit

Ashwani Gujral: its imp to see if ur prices are as gud as the fundamentals

mahesh.ghongade: TAPS310: ashwani Sir What stocks can be bought For Short term?

Ashwani Gujral: buy defensives like cipla, gail, ranbaxy, itc

Ashwani Gujral: that shud be all, tc

31-03-08 Midday Power Calls. PYT.

31-03-08 Markets Rumor And Whisper.

31-03-08 Paid Calls by Expert.

31-03-08 Power Calls. PYT.

31-03-08 Market Rumor And Whisper.

28 March 2008

28-03-08 Chatscript with Mr Anil Manghnani.

28-03-08 Midday Power Calls. PYT.

28-03-08 Power calls. PYT.




For Short term target of 707.

More to come......

Will rain profits!!

By SP Tulsian

· Rain Commodities has recently restructured its business by bringing in Cement and Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) business under its fold. The cement capacity of 1.50 Million TPA would rise to 3.16 million TPA by June 08 while CPC capacity is 2.44 Million TPA and is the world’s largest producer of CPC.

· The company acquired CII of USA on 19-07-07 manufacturing 1.84 Million TPA of CPC with manufacturing facilities in Illinois, Louisiana, Missisipi and West Virginia for a cash purchase price of US $ 595 Million.

· CPC is a raw-material used in the production of aluminium and titanium dioxide and its raw-material is Green Petroleum Coke.

· The merger of all the business took place from 1st April 07 and the company changed its accounting year to end on 31st December, every year. Hence, accounts for 9 months ended 31st December 07 were approved by the Board recently with business of CII, USA incorporated w.e.f. 19-07-07, from the date of its acquisition by the company.

· For 9 months ending 31-12-07 the total income of the company was at Rs.1,634 crores with PBT of Rs.85.57 crores and PAT of Rs.77.56 crores on equity of Rs.32.10 crores. Dividend of 28% was declared for the period ended 31-12-07. This amounts to annualized dividend of 37.33%.

· The results for 9 months above, includes gain of Rs.102.55 crores, being profit on sale of investment in GLC Carbon and financial and legal cost of Rs.134.18 crores for acquisition of Rain CII Carbon LLC. Hence, net extraordinary expenses of Rs.31.64 crores, brought down net profit to Rs.45.92 crores for the period.

· The present equity of the company is Rs.32.10 crores, of which, 40% is held by the promoters while 8% by Mutual Funds and FIIs and 52% by Public. Of this 52%, Citicorp is holding 14.95% stake.

· On 11-03-08, 35 lakh warrants were converted into 35 lakh shares at Rs.200 per share, issued to the promoters, due to which paid-up equity rose to Rs.35.60 crores.

· Due to restructuring and other one time costs and gain, the results of period ended 31-12-07 are not truly reflecting the working of the company. On an annualized basis, 2.4 million tonne CPC can give a topline of Rs.2,400 crores, while 3.14 million cement can give a topline in excess of Rs.1,000 crores. This could result into a PAT in excess of Rs.350 crores, thus resulting into an EPS of close to Rs.100 per share.

· Though new cement capacity of 1.50 million tonne would be operational from May 08, this would get reflected into the working for part of CY 08.

· For the year ended 31-12-08, the company is most likely to post an EPS of close to Rs.80 and dividend is likely to exceed 50% for the year.

· Share is presently ruling at Rs.155 which discounts its expected CY 08 earning by less than 2 times. CPC has huge demand by aluminium manufacturers in India and China, thus putting the company into an advantageous position.

· Share has potential to give a return of 100% in the next 18 – 21 months, with virtually no risk of fall from the present levels. A safe and excellent bet at Rs.155 in this market.

28-03-08 Calls by SK.

25 March 2008

25-03-08 Midday Power Calls. PYT.

24-03-08 Chat script with Mr Ashwini Gujral.

Chat with Ashwani Gujral on 24th March 2008

moderator: Welcome everybody to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us.

Ashwani Gujral: gm all

SHAIKMOI: Hi Is it advisable to short nifty at current level - Regards Moin

Ashwani Gujral: yes, we have gone short at 4594

nitinlal1: Hi Sir, i have Essaroil 175@333...what should i do...exit or hold it for a long time

Corner

Ashwani Gujral: essar oil- supp 157, resis 223

Ashwani Gujral: pls understand very carefully, in case 4450 breaks, there will be further dowside till 4000-4100

Ashwani Gujral: so do not hold any longs below that

shah73tr: sir,please your view on reliance energy, have a big loss please.

Ashwani Gujral: it can go down further, final stop 1000

LUCKYMAN0072002: sir, i m holding 4000 jp@ 434, 10000 rnrl @ 185, 7000 rpl @ 195 what to do with them??

Ashwani Gujral: u need to save ur cap, to stay alive, pls cut ur losses, period

VRAJESH: Which are the best stocks to buy for super long term?

Ashwani Gujral: why dun we wait for the mkt to bottom b4 buying, the mkt is not closing tom, niether is it runnin away anywhere

goel007: hi, can we take positions in sugar at these levels specially in balrampur

Ashwani Gujral: sugar may not fall as much as other stocks, but if fall continues, everythin will fall, have u seen the condition of midcap and small cap, money will be made on the downside i.e. by goin short

sai2sanj: Your view on clutch auto? I have 400 shares at avg price of Rs.119 I am Long term investor. Please advise.

Ashwani Gujral: u shud be out of clutch auto, being long term does not ensure profit

harishmaranani: Sir at what levels shud we go long in this market

Ashwani Gujral: i think 3700-4000 is poss in case 4450 breaks, be very cautious, better to wait and buy higher, that to buy and be sorry

suman80: WHERE YOU SEE BOTTOM OF THIS MARKET . WHEN I SHOULD START BUYING AND WHICH STOCKS I SHOULD BUY.CAN I BUY HDIL,HOTEL LEELA,RELIANCE,ITC,NTPC,KS OIL.IF YES,THEN WHEN AND AT WHAT PRICES?

Ashwani Gujral: bottoms r found in retropect, let the mkt turn, i will indicate the bottom when i find one, NO ADVICE FOR BUYING NOW

Shashavali: i bought 1500 shares of IFCI at 57.1. now it is at 38. pl tell me what to do. i have also bought 650 shares of RNRL at 144 now it is at 98. pl let me what you feel

Ashwani Gujral: i feel just take ur loss and wait for the mkt to bottom, b4 buying again

shakya_s: Hello Sir, Should I short Educomp @ 3150 (Apr. Futs).

Ashwani Gujral: take profit, educomp can also fall further

Ashwani Gujral: oops, i read that as "buy", yes u can short

Ashwani Gujral: that shud be all, tc all

23 March 2008

MARKETS SOAR – ITS ALL ABOUT SENTIMENTS!

The markets finally found the trigger that it was looking for and the positive news, that too about rate cut in USA helped the world markets bounce back. Sounds kind of weird, a rate cut in USA which does not affect the common man in Jhumritalayya or even on the non descript MG Road’s anywhere in India, has today become a reason to rejoice for! Now that’s globalization, it’s gone much beyond Pepsi and Ariel.

While most of us Indians slept off the night, dreaming of a bull market like the days in January, Bernanke announced a 0.75% rate cut in the US Federal Reserve rates. Though it was much below the one percentage point that the markets had expected, nevertheless, it was a welcome move. The Indian bourses were more than enthused by this news and the BSE opened the day for trading 500 points up, a complete reversal of trend from the 1000 points fall of Monday.

What this clearly indicates is that markets are purely driven by sentiments, the only thing that matters is the perception of the investors or the “moods”. All the fundamental signs are the same as that on Monday, the fall in industrial production remains and inflation soars. If these were the points of concern on Monday, they still continue to remain today. The only thing that has changed is the lifting of the moods, with the Fed rates cut, and the Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs group also posting better than expected earnings. Indian companies paying a good advance tax for Q4 also helped.

Yesterday's rate cut brought the benchmark overnight interbank lending rate in USA to 2.25%.Though this rate cut was lesser than the one percent rate cut expected, this coupled with the January 22nd rate cut of 0.75% are the largest reductions in the federal funds rate since it became the chief tool of monetary policy about two decades ago. These rate cuts along with the slew of measures announced last week are expected to ease the liquidity pressures, hopefully spur economic growth and reduce the risks of recession. Now that is what Bernanke hopes will happen and this is what rest of the world also hopes for. All want to ward off a serious recession in USA and the coming six months would be indicative of the efficiency of these measures announced.

The fed rate cut quickly triggered announcements from commercial banks that they were cutting their prime lending rate to 5.25% from 6%, where it was before the Fed meeting. This rate is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.

For now, the moods have been set right, the economic factors and worries continue. For the Indian markets, the Q4 results will now indicate the way in which the markets will move. The economic industrial figures for the month of February will be announced in April and that could once again be a cause for concern as the slowdown is expected to continue. Inflation will continue to remain a sore point.

Right now, from the moods on Dalal Street, it is clear that the marketmen feel that the worst is over. From next week, the market will be sobered and surely, it will be quite a while before the Sensex once again scorches ahead to the 18k mark.

Today’s rise of the indices should certainly put the tap on the pessimists who have been predicting doomsday, saying that the Indian markets have entered into a prolonged bear phase. This rise reiterates the fact that the Indian markets do have the basic resilience and there are still buyers at ever fall, no one is selling and taking off. For now, Mr.Bernanke, take a bow!

19 March 2008

18 March 2008