17-03-08 Stock Queries replied by Mr Sp Tulsian.

Query by Rajeeb,	Sir,pls reply.It is 3rd time,not got reply.Lanco infra 350@456,adlabs at 150@656 Ans : Hold both. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Pankaj deshpande,	Sir , ihave Lok housing and construction What is your suggetion on this stock , I brought @300, now it is @149, Please help, Ans : Due to 50% correction in all realty stocks, other frontliners have become more attractive. Hence switch from this stock to DLF or Unitech. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by RAMESH TIWARI,	Sir, I have LMN.@ 3200/-, what to do pl. advise. Ans : Remain invested for 12 months. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Madhu,	Sir, Please reply or e-mail advice. This is my fifth query. I have NTPC 400 nos @235, IDBI 2000 nos @125 and LOK housing 500 nos@193. shall I hold or exit with one year target to make 20% return on my investment? Ans : Exit from Lok Housing while remain invested in others. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Mouli,	I have 100 shares of Rel Power what is the right time to exit pre Bonus RD or Post Bonus.Please advise Ans : Exit at Rs.400, which may come post bonus based on pre-bonus price. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by prakash,	Sir, this is my fourth reminder to you please reply,how much down side still left in Reliance Industrial Infrastructure ltd,what is the minimun & maximum level you see in the stock?why the stock is hitting lower circuit every day? Ans : Due to no positive announcement coming in as expected by the market, share is hitting lower circuit and now ruling at Rs.908. May fall upto Rs.750. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Somesh,	Sir,what is opinion on Indiabulls twins Indiabull finance and IBREAL-Buy/hold or sell. Ans : Hold for both. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by RAMKUMAR,	Dear Sir, As per your recom I bought Kernex Info @ 230/= and the stock is trading @ 155/=. pls advise me how long I can hold this? Ans : Hold for about 10 - 12 months. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by nilesh,	pls...........this is 5th time im asking you sir, can i know the % return pa on essar shipping, veejay laxmi engg, punj llyod and suzlon, are all stocks good to invest at current levels? if not, then pls provide alternative stocks with a 2 yrs span and 30-40% ret expectancy. Ans : Avoid Veejay Lakshmi and Suzlon while go for Essar Shipping and Punj Lloyd. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by nilesh,	will our mkt be bullish if fed rate cut is @ 75bps as expected? if yes which stocks can i enter with 3 mnths view. if bearish, what stocks can i wait to enter at cheaper levels. any stocks that may hold on their fall even though the mkt falls pre/post MAR 18th Rate cut. THANKS Ans : Fed rate cut of 75 bps would definitely create a positive sentiment for the market. Investment can be made but with 6 - 8 months view and in the frontliners. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Prashant K Vakharia,	Sir Can you please advise target for videocon industires considering its foray into power sector and DTH, in one year? Co. is also well diversifie in consumer durable, Oil & Gas, & NEXT retail Target for one year pl. advise. Ans : Expect a price of close to Rs.450. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by SRILATHA,	Sir, I have purchased 100 Rain commodities at Rs.290/- and 100 PSL Ltd at Rs.545/-. Both are down at 170 & 340. What should I do now? Ans : Hold with 10 - 12 months view. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by SRILATHA,	Sir, I have purchased 1000 Facor Steels @ 17/- Now the price is 5.50. Shall I exit with a loss or hold/average ? Ans : Hold. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by VIJAY DHODY,	Sir two stocks where your recommendations have gone miserably wrong & we are at great loss, 1. Nelco 2. Empee . I read your comment on Empee can u pls give valuable comments on Nelco also Ans : If strategic Electronic Division from Tata Power gets transferred to the company, which has been expected for quite sometime, share price may show a decent rise. Still, share at Rs.80 is good for medium to long term. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by sameer,	Respected sir., I would like to purchase Stocks for 30 days period. pl let me know. Thanks., Ans : Go for Noida Toll and Ranbaxy. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by sameer,	R/sir., I would like to take Ril,Gmr Infra, Noida Toll from current level for 25-30 days.expected return 30-40 % should i go for it??pl advise me. Ans : 30 40% return not possible. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by kishan,	res.sir, please advise whether investment can be made in welspun gujarat adn if yes at what price? thanks. Ans : Better pipe players like Man Industries is preferred at Rs.98. Welspun Gujarat can be bought at around Rs.320. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Varun,	Dear Sir, Do you suggest to start picking up stocks now? If not at what level of the market do I start if there is still a downtrent left? Ans : Buying advised now in selective stocks purely on fundamental basis with 12 months view. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by BRAJ MOHAN SAHU,	DEAR SIR, PLEASE ADVISE ME CAN I REMANING INVES..OR EXIT FROM ICICI BANK 44.. RS.1080 DLF 150.. RS.799 SUZLON 200.. RS.283 BONGOANREF.100 RS.63 BALCHI 250..RS.96 AND KALECONSULTANT 250 AT RS.58 IF YOUR ADVICE EXIT ?THANKS & REGARDS YOUR'S BRAJ MOHAN SAHU Ans : Exit from Balrampur Chini, Kale Consultants, Bongaigaon Refinery and Suzlon while remain invested in others. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Anurag,	bought noida toll@50/-1000shares, should i buy more. What is the one year price target? Ans : Buying can be made at Rs.37. Expect Rs.55 in one year. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Prashant K Vakharia,	Sir, Can u please guide out of Pantaloon, Trent and Vishal Retail? Which one i should buy? I have 500 Vishal Retail Avg. Pride of 550. Pl. advise target in 5 yrs. Ans : Due to poor growth in retail sector, all the stocks are under pressure. We even advise exit from Vishal Retail at Rs.700 and buying not advised in any of the stocks mentioned. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by K.G.Sahasrabudhe Pune,	Coments on Mundra Port & HDIL Ans : Both have corrected more than their fundamental value. Limited downside is seen from present rate of HDIL at Rs.585 and Mundra Port at Rs.525. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Dr. Seema,	Dear Sir, I have 150GMDC@377, 150 IFCI@58.5, 100 IDBI@121, 100 NTPC@194, 85 KERNEX@184, 400 Powergrid@104, 1000 Burnpur@31.3, 200 SPARCEQ@95.4. Please suggest, Hold, Sell or Average? Thanks. Ans : Exit from Burnpur and SPARCE while remain invested in other stocks. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Sarthak,	Hello Sir, Under current market scenarion, Noida toll to be purchase at what price? Ans : Presently ruling at Rs.37 which may fall to Rs.33 in worst case scenario. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by SGA,	Which quality Stocks should I select to enter stock market with about Rs. 6.00 Lacs Rupees? Also suggest diversified stocks to enter. Ans : SBI, RIL, GMR Infra, DLF, Powergrid, Noida Toll, IFCI to name few stocks. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Paritosh,	I have REL @ 1800, Walchandnagar @ 9980, KANCHAN @ 16 what should I do now ? also can i Enter in Meghmani Organics at current levels and what is the espects of the company? Ans : Hold REL and Walchandnagar while exit from Kanchan. Avoid buying Meghmani Organics. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Vivek Arora,	3 yr horizon.Which shud I hold:Murudeshwar Ceramics at 100, C&C Constructions at 238, Oriental Bank of Commerce at 258, Karnataka Bank at 233, Rathi Bars at 29, Taj GVK Hotels at 141, Su-Raj Diamonds at 83, Pochiraju at 41, Mahindra Ugine at 74, JK Lakshmi Cement at 137, Hinduja TMT at 442. Ans : Exit from Murudeshwar Ceramics, Rathi Bars, Pochiraju while remain invested in others. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Venkatesh S.J.,	Dear Sir, I have 4000 shares of Mercator Lines from past 2 years @ price of 53, I would like to Know future prospect of this stock & how long I can hold this stock. This has hit 52 week high of Rs.186 but from last 2 month it trading between 75 to 100. Regads Ans : Listing of its subsidiary on Singapore would be unlocking value for the stock and can touch Rs.100 mark in the next 6 months. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by Investor,	Dear Sir, I want to invest 1 lac rupees in the market. I have done analysis and few scripts are in mind like Abhishek Industries for Rs.16, Gayatri Projects @ 400, Bartronics @ 180. Please advice me at which is best script to buy and at what proportion should I buy it. Ans : All three are mid cap stock, though Bartronics looks good. Go for frontliners in this market, which are available at quiet reasonable valuations. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008
Query by PRAVEEN GARG,	GHCL-TECHNICAL FOR VERY SHORT-TERM TRADING & FUNDAMENTAL FOR LONG-TERM 10-12 MONTHS, PLS GIVE PRICE TARGETS. WHAT ABOUT VALUE UNLOCKING THROUGH DEMERGER?TIME FRAME FOR- RECORD-DATE & LISTING OF ALL 3 DEMERGED ENTITIES., PRICE TARGET COMBINEDLY FOR ALL,3500 GHCL@188, IS PRICE TARGET RS270 POSSIBLE? Ans : Board of GHCL is meeting on 24th March for restructuring of the company, but soda-ash and textile business in which the company operates, enjoy very low discounting on the bourses. Hence, nothing much upside is seen from Rs.84 and even recovering your cost price in the next 12 months looks difficult. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008

17-03-08 Chatscript with Mr Ashwini Gujral.

moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us. Ashwani Gujral: hi all anand agrawal: sir i have rcom fut @ 700 what should i do Ashwani Gujral: rcom is in a downtrend, supp 488, resis 570, mkt can go lower, u shud exit tnk_navvulu: where do the market heading towards?view on gmr infra and nag fert? Ashwani Gujral: gmr infra- supp 137, resis 190, nag fert- supp 33, resis 46 Ashwani Gujral: everyone shud exit long positions for the moment, otherwise more losses can be expected spatil07: good after noon sir :). I have 350 of JPAssociates @ 248 what should I do...what is itz short term target ? Ashwani Gujral: keep a stop of 190 mukeshwadhwani: sir, u r view on fed meet n gold prices..? Ashwani Gujral: gold is headed up, nifty is heading down Ashwani Gujral: well that is a supp, it may or may not hold, wait for clear indications of bottom b4 buying, otherwise this is a gud mkt to short rampalrajesh: Ashwaqni I feel you should give an overview rather than deal with individual scrips Ashwani Gujral: overview is clear, mkt has broken 4600 decisively, now next supp is 4200-4260, it may stop only at 3600, do not go long rite now, wait for it to turn, on the upside i wud be long now, only if 4750-4800 is crossed amritrajbansh: hello sir what are you recommendations on LAKSHMI MACHINE WRKS, LARSEN TUBRO, EDUCOMP, RAJEXP,RELCAP for a period of Six months. Ashwani Gujral: in 6 months nothin great is goin to happen, prepare for one to one and a half years of pain meenu23: Sir, ur views on financial sector shares, esp.EDELWEISS: holding future at 812????????? Ashwani Gujral: brokerages r trouble, pls exit immediately Ashwani Gujral: deccan aviation supp 119, resis 156, but this is downtrend as well GOLWALA: SIR WHAT ABOUT EDUCOMP ? Ashwani Gujral: educomp is a strong share but everythin will fall with the mkt, so keep that is mind, basically i am not too excited on the buy side mukeshwadhwani: SIR U R TOP PICKS @ 4200 NIFTY LEVELS Ashwani Gujral: no long trading in nifty even at 4200, b4 the mkt shows that it is turning, pls, do not be too eager to buy, wait for stocks to bottom out, i will tell here when i think the bottom has come Ashwani Gujral: that shud be all, tc all

Laughing Stocks :- STOCK CLEARANCE SALE

When the Sensex was going up any excuse was good enough to push it up further. The Borivli local arriving on time, absence of traffic jam near Centaur Hotel, T-20 victory, Anil Kumble’s 5-wicket haul at Sydney, Mukesh Ambani’s hair style, his wife’s wardrobe, Abhi-Aish wedding, the film premier of Om Shanti Om, Harry Potter’s new Novel, every thing was cited to justify the valuation of the stocks.

Now the reverse has become true. People are waiting for any excuse to dump stocks.

I realized this when I visited Nair at his posh Chembur residence. Nair was nervously watching the rates roll out in NDTV Profit Channel and gestured me to sit.

Suddenly we heard a loud sound and Nair jumped out of his seat “Did you hear the sound of a bomb blast. I’d would better sell off my entire HLL holding which my grand father bought in 1969.”

“Nair, it is only the sound of a tyre burst and there is no need to dump the stocks which you have been holding for four decades. It happens all the time.” I said.

“Tyre does not burst during the market hours. Some thing is definitely wrong with the auto industry. I better sell off my Tata Motors. Or do you think I should off load Apollo Tyres? You can’t make which industry is in trouble these days. The tyres these days simply conk off without giving any clue.”

“I think you are reading too much into the silly events. Try to relax. The prices of those two stocks are where they are and there is no need to panic.”

Nair was adamant “You don’t know how the market works these days. It may discount these events during the 45 minutes break for sun outage and the stocks may open gap down on resumption of trading and block the exit route. Any way I will send my servant down stairs to confirm that it was simply a tyre burst and nothing more.”

We sank into our seats.

Now the power went off briefly and returned.

Nair exclaimed “Gosh! I should have exited Reliance Energy long before. Now after this power tripping every one would want to exit REL and the stock may not sell.”

I gave him some water and consoled him.

The screen wobbled because of transmission problems and went blank and in another minute the ticker resumed its normal run.

Nair panicked “It looks like there is trouble brewing at NDTV and they are practising how to exit the television business. Let me call up my broker and tell him to clean up the stock from my portfolio.”

Nair rang up his broker and held the receiver for a long time and looked worried. “What happened?” I asked. Nair said “No body is picking up the call. I wonder whether my broker too has quit the business during the 45-minute break.”

Logics that drive Stock Price Patterns

Ask your kid to wake up in the morning or go to bed at night and you are likely to get a not so positive response. Ask an employee to perform certain difficult task and you need to ensure the employee is motivated. Incentives play a major role in motivating one to perform to achieve the desired goals. If the incentive is instant, the impact is likely to be better. That is human nature. Most organisations understand this well and devise reward programs for employees.

Often, in the world of investments, the results of the investments turn out to be very different from what logic can explain and there are situations when a wrong decision gets rewarded just because of the random nature of stock markets. Stock market is a very different place in that way. What we mean to say here is that even at times when one has invested for wrong reasons, or made wrong investment choices, the outcome turns out to be positive. Such an outcome leads one to believe that the decision and the logic behind the decision were right. On other occasions, when one has taken the right approach to assessing an investment, if the outcome is negative, one tends to question the investment process. In both the cases, the outcome may determine the future course of action. An investor making a mistake and getting the right outcome is likely to put more money using the same investment process. The moment the outcome changes, i.e., the negative outcome appears, the investor, in all likelihood loses more than he ever gained. On the other hand, if the outcome was negative in the first place, the correct methodology was either changed or the investor opts to stay away from stock markets.

This is no different from the famous experiment by the scientist Pavlov:

The original and most famous example of classical conditioning involved the salivary conditioning of Pavlov's dogs. During his research on the physiology of digestion in dogs, Pavlov noticed that, rather than simply salivating in the presence of meat powder (an innate response to food that he called the unconditioned response), the dogs began to salivate in the presence of the lab technician who normally fed them. Pavlov called these psychic secretions. From this observation he predicted that, if a particular stimulus in the dog’s surroundings were present when the dog was presented with meat powder, then this stimulus would become associated with food and cause salivation on its own. In his initial experiment, Pavlov used bells to call the dogs to their food and, after a few repetitions, the dogs started to salivate in response to the bell. (Source: www.wikipedia.org)

To put the above paragraph simply, while the dogs were expected to salivate on seeing meat, they started salivating even at the sight of the lab technician, who brought them meat. In the second experiment, when Pavlov started using bells to call dogs to their food, the dogs started to salivate at the sound of the bells even when there was no food. The brain learns and remembers using association. Sound of bells or sight of lab technician was followed by food – in the above discussion. This theory won the Nobel Prize for Ivan Pavlov and goes a long way in explaining how learning can take place.

It's human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation – said William Bernstein

I would narrate an incident that happened long back with a college student. This student happened to be one of the toppers in his class but was always very nervous during the examinations. In his final year, he had prepared well for the exams like he always did. On the day of the first exam, he was sitting on a tea stall having his morning cup of tea. Whether it was nervousness or something else, he dropped the cup and it broke. That day, he did fantastically well in the exam. It became a routine for him from the next day onwards. Every morning, he would go to the same tea stall, have tea, pay the tea stall owner Rs. 5 and break a cup. This was exhibition of the same behavior that William Bernstein mentioned above – “find patterns where there are none” just because one was unsure of the outcome of the exams. We can look around ourselves and find many such examples in real life as well.

It is no wonder then that around the budget time, we hear talks about pre-budget rallies / crashes or post-budget rallies / crashes. The announcements in the budget still can make some difference to certain businesses and the economy at large, but then there is also the December effect or the May-June crash phenomena – just because someone happened to register similar movements of stock prices during those periods.

However, there is a difference between the patterns that cause the prices to move and those that just randomly happen more often. The most important pattern and a proven one at that is the relationship between company profits and the stock price. The stock price moves in line with the growth in the profits of the company. As long as the company continues to grow profitability without diluting the equity base, the prices are likely to move up. However, this long-term up move is likely to be filled with many roller-coaster rides along the way.

It is important to learn about the factors causing long term and short term movements in the stock prices and use this knowledge to our advantage.

Most other relationships and associations are just coincidences. Such coincidences serve no other purpose than to distract an otherwise disciplined investor, leading to costly mistakes.

14-03-08 Chatscript with Mr Anil Manghnani.

moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Anil Manghnani will soon join us. Anil Manghnani: Good Afternoon rohitgnaik: what abt Gujarat NRE Coke..is it likely to move past 160 today Anil Manghnani: Strong stock and has shown good upside in a weak market. However, if the market falls any more this will also fall so I am more comfortable buying the fall from now onwards. Trader stop at 146. Buying levels are at 137/126. Upper targets at 159/167 vvshendre2003: Hello sir i bought 100 Tata tea@850 Anil Manghnani: Trader stop for tata tea at 770. Position player stop at 700. Upper targets at 815/842 vickygaurav_200: Sir I Hv 700 ispat at 41 ..ur views on it Anil Manghnani: Ispat can hold for now stop at 28 upper sell levels at 36/40 cheers40k: Sir in this bear phase u said every rise shud b seen as an opportunity to short, what shud be d stop loss for shorts Anil Manghnani: It has become a very short term trading market. Yes I believe we are in a bear phase and will be so until Sensex can cross 16600-16800. For now the short selling levels are at 4747 - 4851 san.bajaj: What is your views on market from 6 months perspective Anil Manghnani: Slowly charts are getting weaker and weaker. I feel we are clearly headed lower unless we can cross 16600 to 16800 and 5000-5100 which I will be pleasantly surprised if we do so. In the meantine a close below 4620 will take us to 4422-4280 in the near term bhattadshyam: what about thomas cook. hold or sell Anil Manghnani: hold give in buy back at 107 in MAY tanujkatyal: sir i have infosys@ 1383 Anil Manghnani: Infosys should retest lows of 1250. Bharti is weak nidhi_s76: what are your views on rnrl sir Anil Manghnani: too speculative I feel in the event of further correction ADAG will get affected badly. Support at 79. sharmasomil: sir are we in bear phase Anil Manghnani: My definition on bear phase is lower top and bottoms which we are doing. Also for me any break below 50 week MA is a bear phase so we will remain in bear phase till we cross above the 50 week MA which is currently at 16600-16800 kthukral: Sir, shud today`s upmove be considered an opportunity to exit? Anil Manghnani: In a bear phase every pull back will be sold in to. mrsachindixit: are sugar stock strong in current scenario ? Anil Manghnani: For trading one of the better sectors. So buy when they fall to sell the bounce bhattadshyam: good afternoon. Is market is realy in bear phase? If so what are the levels to watch. Anil Manghnani: I do believe we are in one. Any close below 4620 then 4422-4280. Sensex below 15332 then 14720-14096 sajan1967: What is your opinion about the market, to stay invested or stay away for a while? Anil Manghnani: Stay away till it settles down. I do not see it running away rajarjun: any nifty support Anil Manghnani: 4620. NandkumarGangan: hello sir, what about banking sector? today FM is going to present a plan for 60000 loan waiver Anil Manghnani: Still prefer PSU would avoid private banks shafais94: can i buy rcom now Anil Manghnani: trade with stop at 490 ameyamogre: What is the outlook for reliance petro? Anil Manghnani: it is one of the large caps showing good strength. Buy on fall closer to 143 for bounces rakesh_new81: what is ur view on market Anil Manghnani: I am more negative than positive to be honest. I do not mind buyer higher on a confirmed break out rather than trying to catch the supposed bottom Anil Manghnani: buying higher not buyer higher vishfin: should one buy JP Ass at currrent mkt price Anil Manghnani: the recent move is making for good trading opportunities. Support exists at 226/216. Upper level at 236/248 ganeshji101: Sir, Can I buy Alstom Projects at present level of Rs.590/- for one year? Anil Manghnani: nothing to suggest strength if you buy keep stop below 550 rampratap.yadav: will 940-1000 be strong support for relcap to make an positional trade Anil Manghnani: 1136 is a key level that needs to hold nassarca: Whats your view on cairn energ? can i enter at current level ? Anil Manghnani: Cairn has shown good strength recently so buy in this fall. Immediate trading support at 210-208 rampratap.yadav: U said sometime back, their are three schools of thought for bear market, 1st 4800 broken 2nd 4445 broken , 3rd august 2007 low broken. according to u it`s already in bear phase 1st case. do u think if 4445 is held 2nd case which will confirm double bottom should one go and buy ( or in other sense if 4445 hold at wht point should one take an positional call on nifty) Anil Manghnani: Tough Question. My gut feeling is if we test 4445 I am not confident it will hold rkjetty: Can we start buying now or we have to wait for some more days ? rkjetty: Is it a good level to accumulate front line stocks? rkjetty: Is it a good level to accumulate front line stocks? rkjetty: Is it a good level to accumulate front line stocks? Anil Manghnani: You can trade the frontline stocks. I am not sure if this is the right to be investing p.v.patil: what do u think about unitech ? Anil Manghnani: The sector is very weak now. If you buy keep stop at 255 uvsagar: I wiould like to know the charts of IDFC and OBC. Is it a time to buy? uvsagar: I wiould like to know the charts of IDFC and OBC. Is it a time to buy? Anil Manghnani: Idfc buy with stop at 149 rohitgnaik: RANBAXY..will it move above 170 today Anil Manghnani: I assume you mean 470. well that is the resistance which it is not being able to cross. If it does then 516 is target drvaibhav24: gd noon sir , is 4600 nifty levl likly to hold ? Anil Manghnani: I am not sure it will hold. May do so today but eventually it could break. Anyway you trade long with 4600 stop hmmn: Sir, tell me the market for next week bullish or bear? hmmn: Sir, tell me the market for next week bullish or bear? Anil Manghnani: It could give you small pull backs but current charts suggest that each pull back will be sold in to partha_sista: your view on RELIANCE CAPITAL , RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS, both are touching new lows even though their businesses are good. Should we buy, or wait Anil Manghnani: wait as i feel the ADAG group is most suseptible to more declines ksdinesh: enough negative bais on broking stks. will it see uplevel within 2-3 months Anil Manghnani: Difficult. If markets remain dull and keep falling the there are less people trading so overall brokerages will reduce leading to earnings declines and downgrades for brokerage stocks. In addition many of them have opened branches which is another problem. virgovim: can we still go short on RNRL ? Anil Manghnani: short on rise may be close to 123 Anil Manghnani: Thank You Anil Manghnani: h Anil Manghnani: Have a nice week end Anil Manghnani: no disclosures

14-03-08 Midday Power call. PYT.

14-03-08 Chatscript, With Mr Hitendre Vasudeo.

13-03-08 Calls By SPT.

GMR – take a bow!

Now for some news from Bangalore or should we say, Bengaluru? Just when all expected to see two new airports taking off from this month, Hyderabad and Bangalore, news comes in that the airport at Bangalore has been delayed.

Originally scheduled to open on the 30^th of March, the airport will now put off by almost a month due to safety concerns and poor road connectivity from the city to the airport. Airports Authority of India (AAI), which reviewed the preparedness of the new greenfield airport, is not satisfied with the works of the airport operator. Bengaluru International Airport (BIAL) was built in a consortium led by Siemens, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Unique Zurich Airport, Karnataka government’s KSIIDC and AAI. Siemens holds 40% in BIAL, Unique Zurich and L&T hold 17% each in the company.

Another bone of contention is the levy of the user development fee (UDF). Though BIAL agreed to a reduced fee of Rs.240-plus taxes for domestic passengers and Rs.520-plus taxes for international passengers for the first two months, there is major grouse as the other new airport, opening on 16^th March, led by the GMR Group, is not only meeting the opening deadline but has also decided to waive off the UDF for the initial two months. The swanky airport is scheduled to be inaugurated by UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi on March 14.

This delay by BIAL raises some serious questions about the credibility of high caliber companies like L&T and Siemens. These companies have taken up much larger projects and have been in the industry for ages, so how come they could not do their job well. Compared to them GMR is a new kid on the block and yet it has successfully managed to wrap up its work within schedule. Clearly, Siemens and L&T need to relook at where things went wrong or else, others will have to relook at them, from an investment point of view and also from handing over mega projects to them. GMR Infra, take a bow!

12-03-08 Calls by VJ.

12-03-08 Midday Power Call. PYT.

11-03-08 Markets Rumors and Whispers.

11-03-08 MIDDAY Power Calls. PYT.

11-03-08 Power Calls, PYT.

10-03-08 Stock queries by Mr SP Tulsian.

Query by Bhavesh,

Godrej Consumer -Rights Entitlement Ratio 1:7, If i am holding 100 shares then how much share i will be allocated? Will the price of the share wil be divided by 7 ? Can you please explain this..
Ans : In view of rights at Rs.123 per share and market price of Rs.132 no significant change. You will get 14 shares at Rs.123 per share.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by himanshu,

sir,if the bull run is over and we arein a bear phase for 1-2 years .kindly advice as i am holding untech, hdfc bank, icici bank ,abb,powergrid, hindustan const and siemens. i wish to create some cash, in case bearrun) for other commitments like lic ,taxes etc.
Ans : We have not entered in bear phase and all your stocks are fundamentally strong. Remain invested.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Bhavesh,

Godrej Consumer, Should i buy this stock ? What is target in next 2 year?
Ans : Buying is advised at Rs.132 and price of Rs.200 is possible in the next 2 years.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Gaurav Sood,

With a 24 months view , pls. advise on -: NRC (Rs.34) , HFCL (Rs.48) , NOIDATOLL (Rs.39), HINDMOTOR (Rs.46), BINDALAGRO (Rs.43) , UCOBANK(Rs.58), MARG CONST. (Rs.430) ... If possible , can U give approx. price at that time for these ?
Ans : All would rise by 30% on annualised basis, average. Remain invested in all for about 24 months.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by sameer,

Sir, I am out of the market since last 45 days. I am seating with 10.00 lacs cash and waiting for appropriate time to invest with a time horizon of 6 to 9 months.Sir advise me for following questions.... 1. Whcih stocks and at what price advisabel to enter to get atleast 40 % return ?
Ans : Go for RIL, GMR Infra, J P Associates, Kernex Micro, IFCI, India Glycol and Bank of Rajasthan.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Harish,

Bank of India @ 360, Central bank @85,DCB@89,Power finance @185, Bank of rajashtan@140.Should I hold from one year or sell on rise.
Ans : Hold all for about one year.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by amar,

Hello Tulsiji, i am sending this 5th time pls suggest to me abt GMDC I have brought 2000@600. Should i average at current levels also What is 6 months target
Ans : GMDC has proposed bonus of 1 : 1 and the present price is cum bonus. Buying can be made at present level of Rs.320 as an effective price of Rs.450 is likely in the next 6 months.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by BVENKATESH,

Will nuclear treaty impact stock market in near term.
Ans : Commercially it would be beneficial but politcally if Left withdraws support temporary uncertainty would get created due to general elections which otherwise would be largely in the interest of the market.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by BRAJ MOHAN,

SIR AS PER YOUR ADVICE I HAVE 265 SHARE OF DHANLAXMI BANK FOR DEC.07 WE HAVE HEARD THIS BANK ISSUED BONUS SHARE 1:1 BUT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED BONUS SHARE TILL DATE, SO PLEASE ADVISE ME HOW MUCH IT WILL TAKE TO TIME BONUS SHARE CREDIT MY ACCOUNT WHAT IS THE DATE... THAKING YOU BRAJ MOHAN
Ans : Bank has announced rights at Rs.62 per share in the ratio of 1 : 1 and not bonus.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by m.anandhakumar,

sir i have 4000 noida toll@ 28 for long term (7-8 years).please advice some other script below 50rs for 10 years holding.
Ans : Noida Toll is a great stock to remain invested with such a long term view. Go for GMR Infra at Rs.150 or IFCI at Rs.50.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by ashok mehan,

Without nuclear power it is not possible to survive, keeping in view power demand? If nuclear deal reaches it target which companies will be benefited?
Ans : NTPC and Tata Power. Areva T & D would gain in equipment making side.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by selva,

Dear sir, I have 160 JPAssociates @ Rs. 356. I am ready to sell at 10% lose. When can i sell?
Ans : Wait for alteast 6 months.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by P h reddy,

I have 400 shares of asian electronics @230/- what are the future for short and long term view.
Ans : Due to some of the orders having not booked by the company in December 07 quarter, performance of the company for the quarter was subdued. This is just one quarter pain and things would improve hereon. A good buy at Rs.205 levels with long term view.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by P h reddy,

I have 100 shares of asian hotels @800/- what are the future for short and long term view.
Ans : Need to take a long term call as FY 09 EPS is likely to be close to Rs.70 and presently stock is discounted by just 8 times.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Lmshah,

what bottomlevel you envisage for reliance pack
Ans : Seems to have reached for all Reliance Group stocks including Mukesh and Anil group.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by abhishek,

sir,should one enter nalwa sons at current levels?its mkt cap is close to 560 cr while it has holdings worth 1430 cr in various o p jindal group companies besides cash and unquoted investments.what would you say?
Ans : Due to stake in various companies as Promoters holding such companies are always ruling at 30% to 40% of its NAV. Considering this, buying is not advised in the stock.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Rupesh,

Sir, Can i buy National steel at this level for a period of 12 months
Ans : Not advised.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by rr velkumar,

sir i have 100 infosys @2250 at one year before wheather hold and sell and mahaindra&mahaindra 25 @900 what i do pl advice
Ans : Hold both.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Shobha,

Dear sir.I am holding some Tata Steel CCPS which were allotted to me in the rights issue.So now should i sell some of these and buy Tata Steel Shares at current levels? And also is it time to invest in Asian Electronics Ltd? Plz advice .Thankyou very much.
Ans : Buying is advised in Asian Electronics while hold Tata Steel CCPS.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by SALIL,

Respected Sir, pl. reply to my query this time as i am writing to you fourth time. pl. suggest wheather buying is adviced in CMC ,ALFA LAVAL, HYDRO S & S IND. at current levels ? plz..... reply. regards, salil
Ans : Go for other stocks and not what you have suggested.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by ismail,

sir, holding 130 shares of hoteleela @ 66.i am a long term investor can hold for 10-15 years if give good returns. plz advise. what is the future of hotel industries for a long term perspective? thanks
Ans : Good stock and even hotel industry has bright future ahead including Hotel Leela.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by KALPESH.D.,

DEAR SIR, I HAVE B.G.R. ENERGY, EDELWEISS CAPITAL, MUNDRA PORT & SEZ, R- POWER, FUTURE CAPITAL -- ALL STOCKS @ IPO PRICE. WHAT CAN I DO SELL/ HOLD ???
Ans : Hold Mundra Port and exit from others.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by ramesh,

sir, REC alotted - 80 nos.What to do?
Ans : Hold for 3 months atleast.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by KALPESH.D.,

DEAR SIR, NOW IS IT RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN MARKET FOR 6 TO 12 MONTH ? IF YES IN WHICH SECTOR/ STOCKS ?OR MARKET STILL TO GO DOWN ?? OR WAIT & WATCH ??
Ans : Right time to invest by taking stock specific call.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Amandeep,

Sir, should one opt for the Indian Hotels and SBI rights issue?
Ans : Yes. For Indian Hotel don't opt for NCD.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Kanagasabai Ashok,

Dear Sir, I am having 50 shares of Reliance Power bought at an average price of Rs406 on the day of listing. Please tell me if i can still hold the stock. Whether I will get the bonus shares if i, for some reason, am not able to apply by postal ballot? Thanks.
Ans : If you hold the stocks till record date, you would receive bonus. No need to participate in postal ballot. Record date is likely by first week of April.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by vinay,

i am holding 150 shares of essar steel what i should i do? should i sell them to company which is buying @ 47/- per shares or i remain invested
Ans : If you remain invested, it would remain non-traded, but may gain good value in the next 12 - 36 months, and hence you may get better offer at that moment. Presently, promoters are buying it at Rs.48 per share upto 30-06-08. In view of present state of market, sell it and invest in other stocks available at quite cheap valuations.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by kamlesh,

holding 80hilton metal@70ipo assumingbankfd can hold for 3years. cant book huge lose please advice thanks.
Ans : Remain invested with 12 months view.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by pankaj,

Dear Sir, I have some cash around 3 lakhs on my hand and wants to invest in Stock for the first time. Could you please guide me in which stocks to invest ? Regards, Pankaj
Ans : Mid-Cap and frontliners, both have become quite attractive. You can go for RIL, GMR Infra, J P Associates, Bank of Rajasthan, India Glycol to name some.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

Query by Mitheela,

Sir, I sent you so many messages but didnt get reply yet. Please tell me about RIIL & Jaicorp I purchased at on a very higher level and got stuck with these stocks what to do its down more than 60% from purchased price.
Ans : Keep a view of atleast 12 months as you would recover your cost.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008

10-03-08 Chat with Mr Ashwini Gujral.

moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us. Ashwani Gujral: gud afternoon all smadupu: sir, how the market position will be by this month end? will it recover? or will go furthur down? Ashwani Gujral: mkt likely to go down to 4000-4200, this is no time to buy anything, wait for the mkt to stabilise ahmadsarfraz: what to do in present scenerio Ashwani Gujral: we r only trading the nifty up and down, coz stocks r not showin traction, there cud be bout 10% more downside Ashwani Gujral: do not create leverage, do not be long upto ur throat amn_urs: Hi Ashwani!! good after noon. Can we buy ICICI bank at this levels? if not what is the best level to buy? Ashwani Gujral: icici bank best level to buy is 800 mankakamal: can we short nifty at 4710 now.please tell future trading strategy Ashwani Gujral: siemens supp 625, resis 745 Ashwani Gujral: tradin strategy is wait, for nifty to pullback near 4800, and then short johnsonthomasm: When will this blood bath end? Ashwani Gujral: when there is no more blood to flow and i mean it, it will go further than u can think hrishike103: Sir your views on RNRL,Nagarjuna Fert,and Rel Energy? Ashwani Gujral: get out of these, they will go back to where they came from mukeshwadhwani: SIR..U R TOP PICKS @ CURRENT LEVELS ? Ashwani Gujral: try to be in oil exploration, fmcg, pharma and metals, at least u will lose less in these sectors hrishike103: when can we see stop on downtrend? Ashwani Gujral: the key is to let this play out, do not premept, the ppl who will survive this are the ones who have capital left at the end of this Ashwani Gujral: that is all for this week, tc all

10-03-08 MIDDAY Power Calls, PYT.

Vishal exports - The MultiBegger.

In A bull market,you will come across several inventive variants of a sob story.Something just like "One my relatives made tons of money in the stock market. He had a friend who worked for a big operator. Every time he bought a stock,it doubled within a month.I was tempted to go along, and the next time he bought a stock,I bought it too. That stock doubled. Then I sold some jewellery,took an advance against my provident fund and put it all into the next stock he recommended. This time, the stock went down.I waited for a year hoping the price would recover.Finally after I'd lost 75 per cent of my capital,I sold.Oh,and my idiot relative too lost a packet!"

It's easy to lose big money in a bull market.Prices are inflated, the financials of "hot picks" are often dubious,everybody has sure firekhabar.Above all, many bull market participants tend to be inexperienced and sometimes arrogant; and they tend to get drunk on success. When prices fall, most of them lack the discipline to admit they've made mistakes and exit with dignity.

Anyway all said and done,forget it.Very recently one of the most respected panwala in our town,Vanu prasad came rushing to me with his "Sureshot Multibagger tip",It was a long time since we met and bhanu sahab was all smiling with his flamboyant baskets of orbit white teeths."Babua panoa ka dhanda khatma karke ham agaya ab marketwa mey,Apna nonua ne ek tagdi company mari hain aur woh popatwa saf saf kahediya "Vishal Exports" 3rs bhau wala lene ko jo ki "Bilwa" ka 'microsoft'se bhi tez bhagne wala hain kuch dino mey.I got awe struck,nerves got swindled,I took a long breath and bhanu bhaiya added further,"Babua tohre pas isliye ham aya taki tu bhi tohre 19 ke umar ma apne pairo se khara ho sake"Beta ham chalte hain aur "YOU NO PAN CHIBING NO CIGARETE FUKING ONLY BIRIYANI" dekh is tipwa ke sath apna confidence wa bhi agaya...Pitir pitir karke ham angrezi bhi jharne lage...ehehhehehehe,he giggled once more and went away"...I couldnt make much of his versatility though i do agree whole-heartedly that his english accent came superior to many of the MP"S of our country.

The next moment i rushed to my laptop with an unexpressable feeling,audacity was all the way as i even planned to sell my lappy for the next microsoft.So ladies&gentleman let me present you the 'considerably under researched hidden gem,Vishal Export overseas".After a bit of surfing i got the "chabi"(key) to the "Kuberdhan",the Director"s report.So let"s move on..what say?

It is one of the leading players in the EXIM business in India, in terms of "revenue and profits".The Company is engaged in the business of exports and import of Agriculture products, precious metals, chemicals, etc. The Company also got expertise in domestic and international trading of agro based commodities.Wow,great,stunning i said to myself what a great business model,i mean just consider the company buys "ALU,GOBI" and bang exported to the firangis.It exports precious metals too like?kya hain bhai...mili nehi raha hain..hmmm rehno do baki dekhte hain...minerals bhi gaya tel lene...

OOPS...Its into power generation too,Hydel power&Wind power generation,i whispered 'Bhanu bhaiya sahi tha'.So now you are getting a "Microsoft(according to our respected bhanu bhaiya),Tata power and a suzlon...a mix of 3 in vishal exports..can it get better?Choti muh aur bari bat"did u get that my fellow folks?

Now a look into the financials and the shareholding pattern.......

Oh it rewarded shareholder with a bonus too,now my confidence gets a booster again..why not such a great and dynamic business model is there for u to grab..

Sales and profits...rona agaya..pucho mat bhai...khud hi dekhlo...Mom let me have a hankie please.....

The company recently decided to sell/transfer its 'Wind farm project'...which hardly contributes anything...are ruko yaar,i recollected a scene from the bighit film,"Bunty aur Bably"..agar Taj mahal ko kiraya mey diya ja sakta hain to 'Wind farm project' bechke bhi company "Arbo" kama sakta hain...now its upto u guys to differentiate betwen the film scene and the reality..

The 3 promoters,The Mehta family sold more than 41% stake of themselves in the last 12 months...Hmm god knows whats in store of mine...I guess i am there now to replicate bhanu bhaiya in his "Purane Pan ka dhanda...

Its presently quoting at near 3rs...To opt urself for the "Chaddi pe gaddi offer" u can ride on to the helicopters of the company..

Hmm am depressed,just tuned to the song of Atif,"Hum kis gali ja rahe hain apna koi thikana nahi"....

Originally posted by friend

www.arunthestocksguru.com

Seven ways to survive a Stock Market Correction!

1. Stop Listening To Analysts

Most analysts in the media instead of providing you with a solution will just confuse you. Somebody will say everything is doomed while others will say things are great in the long term. Forget listening to analysts- most of them won’t be of any help. The reason people listen to analysts is because they are looking for peace and hope. Trust me you will get none of that by listening to somebody else. Peace and hope are all within you.

2. Stop Staring At Your Portfolio Every Thirty Minutes

Another mistake people make is that they get up every morning and wait for the markets to open. Once markets open they start staring at their stock prices. A fall makes you feel worse and small rise makes you feel a little better. This won’t help either. Instead keep track of the fundamentals of your company every time the results are out. If your company is profitable and growing - be happy. If it isn’t, find out if you need to exit. The stock price will catch up in the near future if business is growing. Do you stare at your money kept in a bank FD everyday? Most probably not. Use the same principle when you invest in stocks or mutual funds.

3. Be Patient

Many of you might not have a lot of cash to buy cheap now; however please be patient with whatever you have bought. Even the youngest billionaire on Earth today is 23 years old. It took him 23 years to be a billionaire and he didn’t do it in few days or weeks. The youngest billionaire probably in history is 23-year-old Mark Zuckerberg - the founder of the social networking site-Facebook.

4. Speak To Actual Investors With Experience

Instead of interacting with analysts or your broker, speak with people who are actual investors and who have been in the market for longer periods of time than you. They will tell you how they have survived various stock market corrections and what has made them richer. Read and learn more about people who have actually created wealth and sustained it over a long period of time.

5. Stop Following Crazy Tips

Please for heaven’s sake stop following ‘hot’ tips which promise to make you a millionaire in a matter of months. Maybe the ‘hot’ tip is only meant for billionaires who would end up as millionaires in case they do follow the tip. If it seems to good to be true, it is probably just a scam, which hopes to take money away from retail investors and put them in the hands of greedy manipulators. Similarly stop following rumours about how fundamentally strong companies are going to be shut down and go bankrupt in the next few months. Use your own head and trust yourself.

6. Understand Market Cycles

Every asset class has a cycle. Stock markets, mutual funds, real estate all move in cycles. Please realize that nothing can keep going up forever in a single direction. There will be phases when prices will come down and again move up. If you go back into history you will see several instances when stock prices came down, however over a period of time quality companies always reward investors. Understand market cycles, and don’t become a slave to them.

7. Follow The Guru

Today the richest man on earth, Warren Buffett, is an investor who has created wealth because he has stayed away from what everybody else is doing and has simply invested in quality companies for the long term. He invested in Gillette, for the simple reason that he believed that men won’t stop shaving. It makes sense to follow, as I call him, “The Guru” and think long term and remember people who create wealth do things that others don’t.

I’m sure if you follow the simple techniques above you will be a much happier and a calmer investor. Investing is about controlling your emotions and being disciplined about what you do.

Happy Wealth Creation!

www.happionaire.com

07-03-08 Chat script Mr Anil Manghnani.

moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Anil Manghnani will soon join us. Anil Manghnani: Good Afternoon ASLAM007: Sir, do you think that the Reliance industries will come down below Rs.2218 today? And what will be the lowest point which the Nifty touches today? Anil Manghnani: I am worried about the market right now. If it closes where it is now it will be for the first time since 2004 below the 50 week Moving Average. Anil Manghnani: That would suggest a bear phase which will not be good for any investor or trader. Anil Manghnani: The immediate support for reliance is at 2120 NandkumarGangan: Good Afternoon, What about banking sector, i am been stuck in bank of india march Futures at 349 Anil Manghnani: Although the sector charts were good prior to the budget I feel with the non clarification as to how the PSU Banks will be paid for the 60000 cr loan waiver has left a lot of confusion for bank stocks in the market. In addition the ICICI bank announcement of sub prime losses could not have come at a worse time. Stay away from this sector till some more clarity emerges sanjay_gurgaon: Sir, what`s your call for Unitech (@300) and Rel Energy (@1525), keeping in view six months time Anil Manghnani: Unitech will now fall further to 250 levels. Reliance pack avoid as when the market breaks important levels it is the strongest pack where major positions have been built that will fall first. innovasec: WHICH STOCK SHOULD I BUY THIS MOVEMENT FOR LONG TERM FOR 3 TO 5 YEARS Anil Manghnani: Wait as there can be a lot more pain left in the system Arkhade: Sir can i buy maruti at this level Anil Manghnani: Buy closer to 850-800 levels for trading kumar.amit: What is your take onthe markets. Anil Manghnani: Like I said we are risking entering a bear phase today and if that happens then levels do not mean much amol321: good afternoon sir,ur views on unitech. Anil Manghnani: Another sector which has huge positions built up that are now getting sold. So wait to buy closer to 250 AASHRITHREDDY: I HAVE REL 200 @ 1150 WHAT SHOULD I DO NOW? SHOULD I HOLD OR SELL ? Anil Manghnani: Sell I am worried about the whole ADAG pack ASHISbXA: SIR I`M HOLDING ASHOKLEYLAND FUTURE @37.85 WHT SHOULD ID O shekar2004: market going down is a signal of bear market plz tell me boldly and let me know the levels to confirm bear market ? Anil Manghnani: Sell Ashok leyland Anil Manghnani: Markets are already in a problem a close below 16577 and 4890 today will be a confirmation virgovim: Hi Anil, been invested arnd 2-3yrs...holding RCOM arnd 373, unitech at 141, shd I sell and re-enter later or just ride this out ? tufayl: Been buying GMR for 250 till now, my average is 190 now. should i average more, or should exit? tufayl: Been buying GMR for 250 till now, my average is 190 now. should i average more, or should exit? Anil Manghnani: I would sell even if you were holding for 2-3 years tufayl: Been buying GMR for 250 till now, my average is 190 now. should i average more, or should exit? Anil Manghnani: Strictly no averaging just look to reduce positions ashishkukreja: Whats your call on suzlon and nagarjuna fert? Anil Manghnani: Look at opportunities to reduce long positions aahuja.qa: Sir What do you have to say about Indiabulls Finance at this stage? Anil Manghnani: I feel finance companies and brokerage houses will be most hit going forward in the event of bear phase so be careful rampratap.yadav: Is jans intra-day low on nifty an strong support to go out and buy, wht are u`r charts signalling Anil Manghnani: They may hold and give a trading bounce initially but my gut feeling is in the event of a bear phase they will eventually break Prashanthbs: Sir , what is the long term view on RPL (for 1-to-2 years) , bought at Rs 140 Anil Manghnani: sell now to buy when market settles or bottoms out nnadkarni: How much of the current Market Activity is affected by FII`s Anil Manghnani: A major amount as they are selling every day. Also remember they are selling due to their own redemption pressure in the country they originate. So if people in the U.S. are feeling the pinch of recession and also with the sub prime problems there will be redemption pressures where the FII's have to sell Prashanthbs: sir is it right time to invest in mutual fund Anil Manghnani: No ALOKSUMAN: SIR, SHOULD I BUY RELIANCE PETROLIUM AND SALE 150 CALL TO EARN PREMIUM FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH Anil Manghnani: No arvind1376: Asian Electrincs@412 sould i hold it may recover holding time is not an issue or book losses And same is for Nocil@33 Anil Manghnani: If we do not recover today by the end this selling phase could take a while longer Anil Manghnani: There seems to be a general question for many stocks as to whether one should hold or sell. My feeling is that we have already broken a major uptrend which will get confirmed today on any close below 16577 & 4890. So after that holding stock as a whole is a major problem jayinusa: good afternoon sir , as u said if we go into bear market how much time it will take to come out of it , and if its bear market what will be the support for it. Anil Manghnani: There will be many trading supports but I doubt they will hold. The immediate supports are at 15700/15332/14700/14200/14100 Rajkumarb: sir.. can we go short on nifty... Anil Manghnani: From now onwards any rise would be a short if the bear phase is confirmed today prinkit: how is rnrl loking to u? Anil Manghnani: The last support is now at 110 below that it is a sell venkatesh_v: how is nifty futures level sir?? Anil Manghnani: Nifty spot at 4711 then 4448.5 sameer.ahuja81: ur view on chambal fert pls? Anil Manghnani: Weak broke down after the budget day jrajesh00: sir is rpl a good buy at 100 Anil Manghnani: Difficult to say now as I would like to see that chart if it fell all the way to 100 but yes it would be a support as it touched around those levels on JAN 22 baji.sahana: Is 4000 on Nifty a reality now? Anil Manghnani: Reality is a word I never use but yes possibilities are there. I think the key would be 4448.5 if that is broken which I think could happen then many supports will not hold ManjunathR: Sir, Is it right time to buy ADLAB ? Anil Manghnani: No avoid ADAG for now rampratap.yadav: u said ADAG group is weak on chart, does that mean that relcap can break 978-1000 support which was the low of august 2007. Anil Manghnani: I feel many of them could correct significantly with the news that SEBI is investigating their last year's major move subhashgunda: how about TCS?.. I am holding 540 shares @1040.. shall I hold? Anil Manghnani: IT is defensive so can hold I feel at most they could test their Jan lows and also if market corrects further rupee could weaken which is plus for IT rampratap.yadav: will august 2007 low on nifty be tested incase 4445 doesn`t hold??? if the 4445 support is broken how should one trade or invest in the market Anil Manghnani: Then you short on every rise mukeshwadhwani: SIR,CAN I GO SHORT ON NIFTY @ CURRENT LEVELS ? Anil Manghnani: yes but then be patient skmhu: What level SBI , RIL ,L Anil Manghnani: No long term buys as of now venkatesh_v: I have a 5 lots of Nifty March in long pos bought at 5250 level. so far i have adjusted m2m some how. what is ur sugeestion hold or sell Anil Manghnani: keep reducing longs sarmatvrk: what is your advice for small investors at the present status of markets? should we hold or book losses and get out of the market? Anil Manghnani: book losses mukeshwadhwani: SIR ,U R TOP STOCK PICKS @ NIFTY 4500 LEVELS ? Anil Manghnani: Need to wait and see individual chart patterns at that time but I would stick to defensive like pharma fmcg auto avoid recent momentum stocks hrishike103: Your views on IFCI,Nagarjuna ferti, RNRL and NeyLignite Please? Anil Manghnani: Avoid momentum stocks mukeshwadhwani: SIR, WHT SHUD BE STOP LOSS FOR NIFTY SHORT POSITION ? mukeshwadhwani: SIR, WHT SHUD BE STOP LOSS FOR NIFTY SHORT POSITION ? Anil Manghnani: the 50 week MA which will change every week currently at 4890 mukeshwadhwani: SIR, U R VIEW ON TTML @ 35.00 10000 SHARES ? Anil Manghnani: sell momentum stocks narendrasoni83: What about JP Associates ?? Anil Manghnani: avoid kalpitk1: should i sell rnrl? will i get it at lower level? kalpitk1: should i sell rnrl? will i get it at lower level? Anil Manghnani: stop loss at 110 vikas iocl: SIR.IAM FED UP WITH THIS MARKET.I HAVE INVESTED NEARLY 9LACS IN EQUITY.NOW I AM IN LOSS OF 2LACS.MY VIEW IS THAT I SHOULD NOT SELL ANY STOCK IN LOSS AS I AM LONG TERM INVESTOR. IS THIS MY VIEW IS RIGHT OR WRONG vikas iocl: SIR.IAM FED UP WITH THIS MARKET.I HAVE INVESTED NEARLY 9LACS IN EQUITY.NOW I AM IN LOSS OF 2LACS.MY VIEW IS THAT I SHOULD NOT SELL ANY STOCK IN LOSS AS I AM LONG TERM INVESTOR. IS THIS MY VIEW IS RIGHT OR WRONG vikas iocl: SIR.IAM FED UP WITH THIS MARKET.I HAVE INVESTED NEARLY 9LACS IN EQUITY.NOW I AM IN LOSS OF 2LACS.MY VIEW IS THAT I SHOULD NOT SELL ANY STOCK IN LOSS AS I AM LONG TERM INVESTOR. IS THIS MY VIEW IS RIGHT OR WRONG Anil Manghnani: We are not a value market but a growth market. In value markets we have long term investors. In growth markets it is all about speculative trading. Also if you are a long term investor then by definition you should not be looking at your portfolio value every day. My view is that you will see lower levels. Call is yours now naileshm: What to do with Reliance capital Anil Manghnani: sell jyotirmay1977: Sir whats ur view on BHEL? Anil Manghnani: sell dha78958: sir, what are your views on jp associates Anil Manghnani: avoid rampratap.yadav: i didn`t find SEBI investigation being done on ADAG group were was it reported or is it just market rumor Anil Manghnani: it is a headline on DNA money vikasawal: Should we start bottom fishing from now onwards in good quality mid cap stocks?? Anil Manghnani: strictly no let market find its bottom you do not try to do so gandhambhaskar: hi sir, pl adviceus the most attractive investment oppertunities you see right now, keeping 6 months to 1 year time frame gandhambhaskar: hi sir, pl adviceus the most attractive investment oppertunities you see right now, keeping 6 months to 1 year time frame Anil Manghnani: wait Fixed Deposits are good for the time being Anil Manghnani: Thank You Anil Manghnani: Have a nice weekend Anil Manghnani: Stay away from markets for now Anil Manghnani: No disclosures

07-0308 Midday Power Calls. PYT.

07-03-08 PYT.

07-03-08 Calls By VJ.

GMRI : Home user fee grounded

GMR Infrastructure's take-off from the Hyderabad airport isn't going to be as profitable as it had planned. The holding company, which will run the Delhi and Hyderabad airports, has decided not to charge domestic passengers a user development fee at the Hyderabad airport; the Rs 1,697 crore firm had been hoping to collect a stiff user fee of between Rs 600-700 from domestic travellers. International passengers, however, will have to cough up $25. Moreover, GMRI is understood to have refrained from upping the landing and parking charges for aircraft. As a result, the net asset value for the Hyderabad airport could be lower by about 25 per cent, estimate analysts, some of whom had pencilled in a charge of Rs 725 per passenger from 50 per cent of domestic passengers travelling on full service airlines. With the charges for landing and parking charges not to be applied for the present, analysts have also shaved off about 5 per cent from the sum-of –the –parts valuation for the stock for FY09; many of them had factored in a 12-14 per cent increase. As such, the company is now being valued at between Rs180-190. Over the past one year, the stock has been an outperformer. However, from its peak of Rs 263 in December 2007, the stock has corrected by over 40 per cent and now trades at Rs 156. That leaves an upside of nearly 20 per cent.

While the market has been weak, the GMRI stock has also corrected because of legal issues relating to long-term refundable deposits from third party developers for real estate near the Delhi International Airport(DIAL) and revenue sharing with the Airports Authority of India(AAI).

Besides, there are some issues regarding the proposed international airport near Greater Noida and its impact on DIAL.

GMRI, which also has a presence in the roads and power sectors, is expected to post revenues of Rs 1900 crore in FY08 and up that to Rs 2500 crore in FY09 by which time the operating margin should rise to between 36-38 per cent and net profits to about Rs 200 crore.

Surviving In Stock Market, Must read.

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs10.

The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at Rs10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would now buy at Rs20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to Rs25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell it to him for Rs50."

The villagers squeezed up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!!!

All this happened in another village also.... But the difference was that here instead of monkeys there were goats.... So though the villagers got stuck up with goats, they milked up the goats throughout their lifetime and when they stopped giving milk, chopped them or sold them for being chopped......

Moral: Buy goats even though they are overpriced, but stay away from monkeys.........

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