| moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us. Ashwani Gujral: gm all mipravin: s next target for ril? Ashwani Gujral: reliance- supp 2220, resis 2430 hmmn: good afternoon morning moserbear buy 160rs qty 1000qty shall i hold or not hmmn: good afternoon morning moserbear buy 160rs qty 1000qty shall i hold or not Ashwani Gujral: moser baer- supp 139, resis 175 shekar2004: good afternoon suggest me a stratgy on nifty should I go short on nifty at this level ? Ashwani Gujral: we r short from 4858 mrsachindixit: hi AG : got any clue on market direction ? Ashwani Gujral: back to 4600-4650 absolute05: larsen at curret levels. Ashwani Gujral: larsen- supp 2925, resis 3384 TAPS310: ashwani Sir What stocks can be bought For Short term? Ashwani Gujral: interest rate sensitives r best short mipravin: what about hindustan oil? should i buy it now? or wait for fall Ashwani Gujral: for the long term u can, keep 95 stop pyt_2008: Hello Sir,I am short on Nifty at 4980 level.Should i cover or wait for more downside.please suggest Ashwani Gujral: hold till 4600-4650 mnjhuy79: Sir, Can you please suggest some good stocks to buy? Ashwani Gujral: do not buy too many stocks rite now, if u have to, u can go short vishfin: Sir, I have invested in fudamentally good co. however becoz of ongoing correction in mkt, the value of portfoilo is down by 40%. Please advise me whether I should hold them or should i exit Ashwani Gujral: its imp to see if ur prices are as gud as the fundamentals mahesh.ghongade: TAPS310: ashwani Sir What stocks can be bought For Short term? Ashwani Gujral: buy defensives like cipla, gail, ranbaxy, itc Ashwani Gujral: that shud be all, tc |
31 March 2008
31-03-08 Chat script with Mr Ashwini Gujral.
28 March 2008
Will rain profits!!
 By SP Tulsian · Rain Commodities has recently restructured its business by bringing in Cement and Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) business under its fold. The cement capacity of 1.50 Million TPA would rise to 3.16 million TPA by June 08 while CPC capacity is 2.44 Million TPA and is the world’s largest producer of CPC. · The company acquired CII of USA on 19-07-07 manufacturing 1.84 Million TPA of CPC with manufacturing facilities in Illinois, Louisiana, Missisipi and West Virginia for a cash purchase price of US $ 595 Million. · CPC is a raw-material used in the production of aluminium and titanium dioxide and its raw-material is Green Petroleum Coke. · The merger of all the business took place from 1st April 07 and the company changed its accounting year to end on 31st December, every year. Hence, accounts for 9 months ended 31st December 07 were approved by the Board recently with business of CII, USA incorporated w.e.f. 19-07-07, from the date of its acquisition by the company. · For 9 months ending 31-12-07 the total income of the company was at Rs.1,634 crores with PBT of Rs.85.57 crores and PAT of Rs.77.56 crores on equity of Rs.32.10 crores. Dividend of 28% was declared for the period ended 31-12-07. This amounts to annualized dividend of 37.33%. · The results for 9 months above, includes gain of Rs.102.55 crores, being profit on sale of investment in GLC Carbon and financial and legal cost of Rs.134.18 crores for acquisition of Rain CII Carbon LLC. Hence, net extraordinary expenses of Rs.31.64 crores, brought down net profit to Rs.45.92 crores for the period. · The present equity of the company is Rs.32.10 crores, of which, 40% is held by the promoters while 8% by Mutual Funds and FIIs and 52% by Public. Of this 52%, Citicorp is holding 14.95% stake. · On 11-03-08, 35 lakh warrants were converted into 35 lakh shares at Rs.200 per share, issued to the promoters, due to which paid-up equity rose to Rs.35.60 crores. · Due to restructuring and other one time costs and gain, the results of period ended 31-12-07 are not truly reflecting the working of the company. On an annualized basis, 2.4 million tonne CPC can give a topline of Rs.2,400 crores, while 3.14 million cement can give a topline in excess of Rs.1,000 crores. This could result into a PAT in excess of Rs.350 crores, thus resulting into an EPS of close to Rs.100 per share. · Though new cement capacity of 1.50 million tonne would be operational from May 08, this would get reflected into the working for part of CY 08. · For the year ended 31-12-08, the company is most likely to post an EPS of close to Rs.80 and dividend is likely to exceed 50% for the year. · Share is presently ruling at Rs.155 which discounts its expected CY 08 earning by less than 2 times. CPC has huge demand by aluminium manufacturers in India and China, thus putting the company into an advantageous position. · Share has potential to give a return of 100% in the next 18 – 21 months, with virtually no risk of fall from the present levels. A safe and excellent bet at Rs.155 in this market. |
27 March 2008
25 March 2008
24-03-08 Chat script with Mr Ashwini Gujral.
Chat with Ashwani Gujral on 24th March 2008
moderator: Welcome everybody to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us.
Ashwani Gujral: gm all
SHAIKMOI: Hi Is it advisable to short nifty at current level - Regards Moin
Ashwani Gujral: yes, we have gone short at 4594
nitinlal1: Hi Sir, i have Essaroil 175@333...what should i do...exit or hold it for a long time
Corner
Ashwani Gujral: essar oil- supp 157, resis 223
Ashwani Gujral: pls understand very carefully, in case 4450 breaks, there will be further dowside till 4000-4100
Ashwani Gujral: so do not hold any longs below that
shah73tr: sir,please your view on reliance energy, have a big loss please.
Ashwani Gujral: it can go down further, final stop 1000
LUCKYMAN0072002: sir, i m holding 4000 jp@ 434, 10000 rnrl @ 185, 7000 rpl @ 195 what to do with them??
Ashwani Gujral: u need to save
VRAJESH: Which are the best stocks to buy for super long term?
Ashwani Gujral: why dun we wait for the mkt to bottom b4 buying, the mkt is not closing tom, niether is it runnin away anywhere
goel007: hi, can we take positions in sugar at these levels specially in balrampur
Ashwani Gujral: sugar may not fall as much as other stocks, but if fall continues, everythin will fall, have u seen the condition of midcap and small cap, money will be made on the downside i.e. by goin short
sai2sanj: Your view on clutch auto? I have 400 shares at avg price of Rs.119 I am Long term investor. Please advise.
Ashwani Gujral: u shud be out of clutch auto, being long term does not ensure profit
harishmaranani: Sir at what levels shud we go long in this market
Ashwani Gujral: i think 3700-4000 is poss in case 4450 breaks, be very cautious, better to wait and buy higher, that to buy and be sorry
suman80: WHERE YOU SEE BOTTOM OF THIS MARKET . WHEN I SHOULD START BUYING AND WHICH STOCKS I SHOULD BUY.CAN I BUY HDIL,HOTEL LEELA,RELIANCE,ITC,
Ashwani Gujral: bottoms r found in retropect, let the mkt turn, i will indicate the bottom when i find one, NO ADVICE FOR BUYING NOW
Shashavali: i bought 1500 shares of IFCI at 57.1. now it is at 38. pl tell me what to do. i have also bought 650 shares of RNRL at 144 now it is at 98. pl let me what you feel
Ashwani Gujral: i feel just take
shakya_s: Hello Sir, Should I short Educomp @ 3150 (Apr. Futs).
Ashwani Gujral: take profit, educomp can also fall further
Ashwani Gujral: oops, i read that as "buy", yes u can short
Ashwani Gujral: that shud be all, tc all
23 March 2008
MARKETS SOAR – ITS ALL ABOUT SENTIMENTS!
The markets finally found the trigger that it was looking for and the positive news, that too about rate cut in USA helped the world markets bounce back. Sounds kind of weird, a rate cut in USA which does not affect the common man in Jhumritalayya or even on the non descript MG Road’s anywhere in India, has today become a reason to rejoice for! Now that’s globalization, it’s gone much beyond Pepsi and Ariel.
While most of us Indians slept off the night, dreaming of a bull market like the days in January, Bernanke announced a 0.75% rate cut in the US Federal Reserve rates. Though it was much below the one percentage point that the markets had expected, nevertheless, it was a welcome move. The Indian bourses were more than enthused by this news and the BSE opened the day for trading 500 points up, a complete reversal of trend from the 1000 points fall of Monday.
What this clearly indicates is that markets are purely driven by sentiments, the only thing that matters is the perception of the investors or the “moods”. All the fundamental signs are the same as that on Monday, the fall in industrial production remains and inflation soars. If these were the points of concern on Monday, they still continue to remain today. The only thing that has changed is the lifting of the moods, with the Fed rates cut, and the Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs group also posting better than expected earnings. Indian companies paying a good advance tax for Q4 also helped.
Yesterday's rate cut brought the benchmark overnight interbank lending rate in USA to 2.25%.Though this rate cut was lesser than the one percent rate cut expected, this coupled with the January 22nd rate cut of 0.75% are the largest reductions in the federal funds rate since it became the chief tool of monetary policy about two decades ago. These rate cuts along with the slew of measures announced last week are expected to ease the liquidity pressures, hopefully spur economic growth and reduce the risks of recession. Now that is what Bernanke hopes will happen and this is what rest of the world also hopes for. All want to ward off a serious recession in USA and the coming six months would be indicative of the efficiency of these measures announced.
The fed rate cut quickly triggered announcements from commercial banks that they were cutting their prime lending rate to 5.25% from 6%, where it was before the Fed meeting. This rate is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.
For now, the moods have been set right, the economic factors and worries continue. For the Indian markets, the Q4 results will now indicate the way in which the markets will move. The economic industrial figures for the month of February will be announced in April and that could once again be a cause for concern as the slowdown is expected to continue. Inflation will continue to remain a sore point.
Right now, from the moods on Dalal Street, it is clear that the marketmen feel that the worst is over. From next week, the market will be sobered and surely, it will be quite a while before the Sensex once again scorches ahead to the 18k mark.
19 March 2008
18 March 2008
17 March 2008
17-03-08 Stock Queries replied by Mr Sp Tulsian.
| Query by Rajeeb, | Sir,pls reply.It is 3rd time,not got reply.Lanco infra 350@456,adlabs at 150@656 Ans : Hold both. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Pankaj deshpande, | Sir , ihave Lok housing and construction What is your suggetion on this stock , I brought @300, now it is @149, Please help, Ans : Due to 50% correction in all realty stocks, other frontliners have become more attractive. Hence switch from this stock to DLF or Unitech. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by RAMESH TIWARI, | Sir, I have LMN.@ 3200/-, what to do pl. advise. Ans : Remain invested for 12 months. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Madhu, | Sir, Please reply or e-mail advice. This is my fifth query. I have NTPC 400 nos @235, IDBI 2000 nos @125 and LOK housing 500 nos@193. shall I hold or exit with one year target to make 20% return on my investment? Ans : Exit from Lok Housing while remain invested in others. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Mouli, | I have 100 shares of Rel Power what is the right time to exit pre Bonus RD or Post Bonus.Please advise Ans : Exit at Rs.400, which may come post bonus based on pre-bonus price. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by prakash, | Sir, this is my fourth reminder to you please reply,how much down side still left in Reliance Industrial Infrastructure ltd,what is the minimun & maximum level you see in the stock?why the stock is hitting lower circuit every day? Ans : Due to no positive announcement coming in as expected by the market, share is hitting lower circuit and now ruling at Rs.908. May fall upto Rs.750. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Somesh, | Sir,what is opinion on Indiabulls twins Indiabull finance and IBREAL-Buy/hold or sell. Ans : Hold for both. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by RAMKUMAR, | Dear Sir, As per your recom I bought Kernex Info @ 230/= and the stock is trading @ 155/=. pls advise me how long I can hold this? Ans : Hold for about 10 - 12 months. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by nilesh, | pls...........this is 5th time im asking you sir, can i know the % return pa on essar shipping, veejay laxmi engg, punj llyod and suzlon, are all stocks good to invest at current levels? if not, then pls provide alternative stocks with a 2 yrs span and 30-40% ret expectancy. Ans : Avoid Veejay Lakshmi and Suzlon while go for Essar Shipping and Punj Lloyd. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by nilesh, | will our mkt be bullish if fed rate cut is @ 75bps as expected? if yes which stocks can i enter with 3 mnths view. if bearish, what stocks can i wait to enter at cheaper levels. any stocks that may hold on their fall even though the mkt falls pre/post MAR 18th Rate cut. THANKS Ans : Fed rate cut of 75 bps would definitely create a positive sentiment for the market. Investment can be made but with 6 - 8 months view and in the frontliners. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Prashant K Vakharia, | Sir Can you please advise target for videocon industires considering its foray into power sector and DTH, in one year? Co. is also well diversifie in consumer durable, Oil & Gas, & NEXT retail Target for one year pl. advise. Ans : Expect a price of close to Rs.450. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by SRILATHA, | Sir, I have purchased 100 Rain commodities at Rs.290/- and 100 PSL Ltd at Rs.545/-. Both are down at 170 & 340. What should I do now? Ans : Hold with 10 - 12 months view. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by SRILATHA, | Sir, I have purchased 1000 Facor Steels @ 17/- Now the price is 5.50. Shall I exit with a loss or hold/average ? Ans : Hold. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by VIJAY DHODY, | Sir two stocks where your recommendations have gone miserably wrong & we are at great loss, 1. Nelco 2. Empee . I read your comment on Empee can u pls give valuable comments on Nelco also Ans : If strategic Electronic Division from Tata Power gets transferred to the company, which has been expected for quite sometime, share price may show a decent rise. Still, share at Rs.80 is good for medium to long term. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by sameer, | Respected sir., I would like to purchase Stocks for 30 days period. pl let me know. Thanks., Ans : Go for Noida Toll and Ranbaxy. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by sameer, | R/sir., I would like to take Ril,Gmr Infra, Noida Toll from current level for 25-30 days.expected return 30-40 % should i go for it??pl advise me. Ans : 30 40% return not possible. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by kishan, | res.sir, please advise whether investment can be made in welspun gujarat adn if yes at what price? thanks. Ans : Better pipe players like Man Industries is preferred at Rs.98. Welspun Gujarat can be bought at around Rs.320. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Varun, | Dear Sir, Do you suggest to start picking up stocks now? If not at what level of the market do I start if there is still a downtrent left? Ans : Buying advised now in selective stocks purely on fundamental basis with 12 months view. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by BRAJ MOHAN SAHU, | DEAR SIR, PLEASE ADVISE ME CAN I REMANING INVES..OR EXIT FROM ICICI BANK 44.. RS.1080 DLF 150.. RS.799 SUZLON 200.. RS.283 BONGOANREF.100 RS.63 BALCHI 250..RS.96 AND KALECONSULTANT 250 AT RS.58 IF YOUR ADVICE EXIT ?THANKS & REGARDS YOUR'S BRAJ MOHAN SAHU Ans : Exit from Balrampur Chini, Kale Consultants, Bongaigaon Refinery and Suzlon while remain invested in others. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Anurag, | bought noida toll@50/-1000shares, should i buy more. What is the one year price target? Ans : Buying can be made at Rs.37. Expect Rs.55 in one year. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Prashant K Vakharia, | Sir, Can u please guide out of Pantaloon, Trent and Vishal Retail? Which one i should buy? I have 500 Vishal Retail Avg. Pride of 550. Pl. advise target in 5 yrs. Ans : Due to poor growth in retail sector, all the stocks are under pressure. We even advise exit from Vishal Retail at Rs.700 and buying not advised in any of the stocks mentioned. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by K.G.Sahasrabudhe Pune, | Coments on Mundra Port & HDIL Ans : Both have corrected more than their fundamental value. Limited downside is seen from present rate of HDIL at Rs.585 and Mundra Port at Rs.525. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Dr. Seema, | Dear Sir, I have 150GMDC@377, 150 IFCI@58.5, 100 IDBI@121, 100 NTPC@194, 85 KERNEX@184, 400 Powergrid@104, 1000 Burnpur@31.3, 200 SPARCEQ@95.4. Please suggest, Hold, Sell or Average? Thanks. Ans : Exit from Burnpur and SPARCE while remain invested in other stocks. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Sarthak, | Hello Sir, Under current market scenarion, Noida toll to be purchase at what price? Ans : Presently ruling at Rs.37 which may fall to Rs.33 in worst case scenario. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by SGA, | Which quality Stocks should I select to enter stock market with about Rs. 6.00 Lacs Rupees? Also suggest diversified stocks to enter. Ans : SBI, RIL, GMR Infra, DLF, Powergrid, Noida Toll, IFCI to name few stocks. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Paritosh, | I have REL @ 1800, Walchandnagar @ 9980, KANCHAN @ 16 what should I do now ? also can i Enter in Meghmani Organics at current levels and what is the espects of the company? Ans : Hold REL and Walchandnagar while exit from Kanchan. Avoid buying Meghmani Organics. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Vivek Arora, | 3 yr horizon.Which shud I hold:Murudeshwar Ceramics at 100, C&C Constructions at 238, Oriental Bank of Commerce at 258, Karnataka Bank at 233, Rathi Bars at 29, Taj GVK Hotels at 141, Su-Raj Diamonds at 83, Pochiraju at 41, Mahindra Ugine at 74, JK Lakshmi Cement at 137, Hinduja TMT at 442. Ans : Exit from Murudeshwar Ceramics, Rathi Bars, Pochiraju while remain invested in others. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Venkatesh S.J., | Dear Sir, I have 4000 shares of Mercator Lines from past 2 years @ price of 53, I would like to Know future prospect of this stock & how long I can hold this stock. This has hit 52 week high of Rs.186 but from last 2 month it trading between 75 to 100. Regads Ans : Listing of its subsidiary on Singapore would be unlocking value for the stock and can touch Rs.100 mark in the next 6 months. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by Investor, | Dear Sir, I want to invest 1 lac rupees in the market. I have done analysis and few scripts are in mind like Abhishek Industries for Rs.16, Gayatri Projects @ 400, Bartronics @ 180. Please advice me at which is best script to buy and at what proportion should I buy it. Ans : All three are mid cap stock, though Bartronics looks good. Go for frontliners in this market, which are available at quiet reasonable valuations. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
| Query by PRAVEEN GARG, | GHCL-TECHNICAL FOR VERY SHORT-TERM TRADING & FUNDAMENTAL FOR LONG-TERM 10-12 MONTHS, PLS GIVE PRICE TARGETS. WHAT ABOUT VALUE UNLOCKING THROUGH DEMERGER?TIME FRAME FOR- RECORD-DATE & LISTING OF ALL 3 DEMERGED ENTITIES., PRICE TARGET COMBINEDLY FOR ALL,3500 GHCL@188, IS PRICE TARGET RS270 POSSIBLE? Ans : Board of GHCL is meeting on 24th March for restructuring of the company, but soda-ash and textile business in which the company operates, enjoy very low discounting on the bourses. Hence, nothing much upside is seen from Rs.84 and even recovering your cost price in the next 12 months looks difficult. Query Answered On Mon 17th Mar 2008 |
17-03-08 Chatscript with Mr Ashwini Gujral.
| moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Ashwani Gujral will soon join us. Ashwani Gujral: hi all anand agrawal: sir i have rcom fut @ 700 what should i do Ashwani Gujral: rcom is in a downtrend, supp 488, resis 570, mkt can go lower, u shud exit tnk_navvulu: where do the market heading towards?view on gmr infra and nag fert? Ashwani Gujral: gmr infra- supp 137, resis 190, nag fert- supp 33, resis 46 Ashwani Gujral: everyone shud exit long positions for the moment, otherwise more losses can be expected spatil07: good after noon sir :). I have 350 of JPAssociates @ 248 what should I do...what is itz short term target ? Ashwani Gujral: keep a stop of 190 mukeshwadhwani: sir, u r view on fed meet n gold prices..? Ashwani Gujral: gold is headed up, nifty is heading down Ashwani Gujral: well that is a supp, it may or may not hold, wait for clear indications of bottom b4 buying, otherwise this is a gud mkt to short rampalrajesh: Ashwaqni I feel you should give an overview rather than deal with individual scrips Ashwani Gujral: overview is clear, mkt has broken 4600 decisively, now next supp is 4200-4260, it may stop only at 3600, do not go long rite now, wait for it to turn, on the upside i wud be long now, only if 4750-4800 is crossed amritrajbansh: hello sir what are you recommendations on LAKSHMI MACHINE WRKS, LARSEN TUBRO, EDUCOMP, RAJEXP,RELCAP for a period of Six months. Ashwani Gujral: in 6 months nothin great is goin to happen, prepare for one to one and a half years of pain meenu23: Sir, ur views on financial sector shares, esp.EDELWEISS: holding future at 812????????? Ashwani Gujral: brokerages r trouble, pls exit immediately Ashwani Gujral: deccan aviation supp 119, resis 156, but this is downtrend as well GOLWALA: SIR WHAT ABOUT EDUCOMP ? Ashwani Gujral: educomp is a strong share but everythin will fall with the mkt, so keep that is mind, basically i am not too excited on the buy side mukeshwadhwani: SIR U R TOP PICKS @ 4200 NIFTY LEVELS Ashwani Gujral: no long trading in nifty even at 4200, b4 the mkt shows that it is turning, pls, do not be too eager to buy, wait for stocks to bottom out, i will tell here when i think the bottom has come Ashwani Gujral: that shud be all, tc all |
Laughing Stocks :- STOCK CLEARANCE SALE
When the Sensex was going up any excuse was good enough to push it up further. The Borivli local arriving on time, absence of traffic jam near Centaur Hotel, T-20 victory, Anil Kumble’s 5-wicket haul at Sydney, Mukesh Ambani’s hair style, his wife’s wardrobe, Abhi-Aish wedding, the film premier of Om Shanti Om, Harry Potter’s new Novel, every thing was cited to justify the valuation of the stocks.
Now the reverse has become true. People are waiting for any excuse to dump stocks.
I realized this when I visited Nair at his posh Chembur residence. Nair was nervously watching the rates roll out in NDTV Profit Channel and gestured me to sit.
Suddenly we heard a loud sound and Nair jumped out of his seat “Did you hear the sound of a bomb blast. I’d would better sell off my entire HLL holding which my grand father bought in 1969.”
“Nair, it is only the sound of a tyre burst and there is no need to dump the stocks which you have been holding for four decades. It happens all the time.” I said.
“Tyre does not burst during the market hours. Some thing is definitely wrong with the auto industry. I better sell off my Tata Motors. Or do you think I should off load Apollo Tyres? You can’t make which industry is in trouble these days. The tyres these days simply conk off without giving any clue.”
“I think you are reading too much into the silly events. Try to relax. The prices of those two stocks are where they are and there is no need to panic.”
Nair was adamant “You don’t know how the market works these days. It may discount these events during the 45 minutes break for sun outage and the stocks may open gap down on resumption of trading and block the exit route. Any way I will send my servant down stairs to confirm that it was simply a tyre burst and nothing more.”
We sank into our seats.
Now the power went off briefly and returned.
Nair exclaimed “Gosh! I should have exited Reliance Energy long before. Now after this power tripping every one would want to exit REL and the stock may not sell.”
I gave him some water and consoled him.
The screen wobbled because of transmission problems and went blank and in another minute the ticker resumed its normal run.
Nair panicked “It looks like there is trouble brewing at NDTV and they are practising how to exit the television business. Let me call up my broker and tell him to clean up the stock from my portfolio.”
14 March 2008
Logics that drive Stock Price Patterns
Ask your kid to wake up in the morning or go to bed at night and you are likely to get a not so positive response. Ask an employee to perform certain difficult task and you need to ensure the employee is motivated. Incentives play a major role in motivating one to perform to achieve the desired goals. If the incentive is instant, the impact is likely to be better. That is human nature. Most organisations understand this well and devise reward programs for employees.
Often, in the world of investments, the results of the investments turn out to be very different from what logic can explain and there are situations when a wrong decision gets rewarded just because of the random nature of stock markets. Stock market is a very different place in that way. What we mean to say here is that even at times when one has invested for wrong reasons, or made wrong investment choices, the outcome turns out to be positive. Such an outcome leads one to believe that the decision and the logic behind the decision were right. On other occasions, when one has taken the right approach to assessing an investment, if the outcome is negative, one tends to question the investment process. In both the cases, the outcome may determine the future course of action. An investor making a mistake and getting the right outcome is likely to put more money using the same investment process. The moment the outcome changes, i.e., the negative outcome appears, the investor, in all likelihood loses more than he ever gained. On the other hand, if the outcome was negative in the first place, the correct methodology was either changed or the investor opts to stay away from stock markets.
This is no different from the famous experiment by the scientist Pavlov:
The original and most famous example of classical conditioning involved the salivary conditioning of Pavlov's dogs. During his research on the physiology of digestion in dogs, Pavlov noticed that, rather than simply salivating in the presence of meat powder (an innate response to food that he called the unconditioned response), the dogs began to salivate in the presence of the lab technician who normally fed them. Pavlov called these psychic secretions. From this observation he predicted that, if a particular stimulus in the dog’s surroundings were present when the dog was presented with meat powder, then this stimulus would become associated with food and cause salivation on its own. In his initial experiment, Pavlov used bells to call the dogs to their food and, after a few repetitions, the dogs started to salivate in response to the bell. (Source: www.wikipedia.org)
To put the above paragraph simply, while the dogs were expected to salivate on seeing meat, they started salivating even at the sight of the lab technician, who brought them meat. In the second experiment, when Pavlov started using bells to call dogs to their food, the dogs started to salivate at the sound of the bells even when there was no food. The brain learns and remembers using association. Sound of bells or sight of lab technician was followed by food – in the above discussion. This theory won the Nobel Prize for Ivan Pavlov and goes a long way in explaining how learning can take place.
It's human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation – said William Bernstein
I would narrate an incident that happened long back with a college student. This student happened to be one of the toppers in his class but was always very nervous during the examinations. In his final year, he had prepared well for the exams like he always did. On the day of the first exam, he was sitting on a tea stall having his morning cup of tea. Whether it was nervousness or something else, he dropped the cup and it broke. That day, he did fantastically well in the exam. It became a routine for him from the next day onwards. Every morning, he would go to the same tea stall, have tea, pay the tea stall owner Rs. 5 and break a cup. This was exhibition of the same behavior that William Bernstein mentioned above – “find patterns where there are none” just because one was unsure of the outcome of the exams. We can look around ourselves and find many such examples in real life as well.
It is no wonder then that around the budget time, we hear talks about pre-budget rallies / crashes or post-budget rallies / crashes. The announcements in the budget still can make some difference to certain businesses and the economy at large, but then there is also the December effect or the May-June crash phenomena – just because someone happened to register similar movements of stock prices during those periods.
However, there is a difference between the patterns that cause the prices to move and those that just randomly happen more often. The most important pattern and a proven one at that is the relationship between company profits and the stock price. The stock price moves in line with the growth in the profits of the company. As long as the company continues to grow profitability without diluting the equity base, the prices are likely to move up. However, this long-term up move is likely to be filled with many roller-coaster rides along the way.
It is important to learn about the factors causing long term and short term movements in the stock prices and use this knowledge to our advantage.
Most other relationships and associations are just coincidences. Such coincidences serve no other purpose than to distract an otherwise disciplined investor, leading to costly mistakes.
14-03-08 Chatscript with Mr Anil Manghnani.
| moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Anil Manghnani will soon join us. Anil Manghnani: Good Afternoon rohitgnaik: what abt Gujarat NRE Coke..is it likely to move past 160 today Anil Manghnani: Strong stock and has shown good upside in a weak market. However, if the market falls any more this will also fall so I am more comfortable buying the fall from now onwards. Trader stop at 146. Buying levels are at 137/126. Upper targets at 159/167 vvshendre2003: Hello sir i bought 100 Tata tea@850 Anil Manghnani: Trader stop for tata tea at 770. Position player stop at 700. Upper targets at 815/842 vickygaurav_200: Sir I Hv 700 ispat at 41 ..ur views on it Anil Manghnani: Ispat can hold for now stop at 28 upper sell levels at 36/40 cheers40k: Sir in this bear phase u said every rise shud b seen as an opportunity to short, what shud be d stop loss for shorts Anil Manghnani: It has become a very short term trading market. Yes I believe we are in a bear phase and will be so until Sensex can cross 16600-16800. For now the short selling levels are at 4747 - 4851 san.bajaj: What is your views on market from 6 months perspective Anil Manghnani: Slowly charts are getting weaker and weaker. I feel we are clearly headed lower unless we can cross 16600 to 16800 and 5000-5100 which I will be pleasantly surprised if we do so. In the meantine a close below 4620 will take us to 4422-4280 in the near term bhattadshyam: what about thomas cook. hold or sell Anil Manghnani: hold give in buy back at 107 in MAY tanujkatyal: sir i have infosys@ 1383 Anil Manghnani: Infosys should retest lows of 1250. Bharti is weak nidhi_s76: what are your views on rnrl sir Anil Manghnani: too speculative I feel in the event of further correction ADAG will get affected badly. Support at 79. sharmasomil: sir are we in bear phase Anil Manghnani: My definition on bear phase is lower top and bottoms which we are doing. Also for me any break below 50 week MA is a bear phase so we will remain in bear phase till we cross above the 50 week MA which is currently at 16600-16800 kthukral: Sir, shud today`s upmove be considered an opportunity to exit? Anil Manghnani: In a bear phase every pull back will be sold in to. mrsachindixit: are sugar stock strong in current scenario ? Anil Manghnani: For trading one of the better sectors. So buy when they fall to sell the bounce bhattadshyam: good afternoon. Is market is realy in bear phase? If so what are the levels to watch. Anil Manghnani: I do believe we are in one. Any close below 4620 then 4422-4280. Sensex below 15332 then 14720-14096 sajan1967: What is your opinion about the market, to stay invested or stay away for a while? Anil Manghnani: Stay away till it settles down. I do not see it running away rajarjun: any nifty support Anil Manghnani: 4620. NandkumarGangan: hello sir, what about banking sector? today FM is going to present a plan for 60000 loan waiver Anil Manghnani: Still prefer PSU would avoid private banks shafais94: can i buy rcom now Anil Manghnani: trade with stop at 490 ameyamogre: What is the outlook for reliance petro? Anil Manghnani: it is one of the large caps showing good strength. Buy on fall closer to 143 for bounces rakesh_new81: what is ur view on market Anil Manghnani: I am more negative than positive to be honest. I do not mind buyer higher on a confirmed break out rather than trying to catch the supposed bottom Anil Manghnani: buying higher not buyer higher vishfin: should one buy JP Ass at currrent mkt price Anil Manghnani: the recent move is making for good trading opportunities. Support exists at 226/216. Upper level at 236/248 ganeshji101: Sir, Can I buy Alstom Projects at present level of Rs.590/- for one year? Anil Manghnani: nothing to suggest strength if you buy keep stop below 550 rampratap.yadav: will 940-1000 be strong support for relcap to make an positional trade Anil Manghnani: 1136 is a key level that needs to hold nassarca: Whats your view on cairn energ? can i enter at current level ? Anil Manghnani: Cairn has shown good strength recently so buy in this fall. Immediate trading support at 210-208 rampratap.yadav: U said sometime back, their are three schools of thought for bear market, 1st 4800 broken 2nd 4445 broken , 3rd august 2007 low broken. according to u it`s already in bear phase 1st case. do u think if 4445 is held 2nd case which will confirm double bottom should one go and buy ( or in other sense if 4445 hold at wht point should one take an positional call on nifty) Anil Manghnani: Tough Question. My gut feeling is if we test 4445 I am not confident it will hold rkjetty: Can we start buying now or we have to wait for some more days ? rkjetty: Is it a good level to accumulate front line stocks? rkjetty: Is it a good level to accumulate front line stocks? rkjetty: Is it a good level to accumulate front line stocks? Anil Manghnani: You can trade the frontline stocks. I am not sure if this is the right to be investing p.v.patil: what do u think about unitech ? Anil Manghnani: The sector is very weak now. If you buy keep stop at 255 uvsagar: I wiould like to know the charts of IDFC and OBC. Is it a time to buy? uvsagar: I wiould like to know the charts of IDFC and OBC. Is it a time to buy? Anil Manghnani: Idfc buy with stop at 149 rohitgnaik: RANBAXY..will it move above 170 today Anil Manghnani: I assume you mean 470. well that is the resistance which it is not being able to cross. If it does then 516 is target drvaibhav24: gd noon sir , is 4600 nifty levl likly to hold ? Anil Manghnani: I am not sure it will hold. May do so today but eventually it could break. Anyway you trade long with 4600 stop hmmn: Sir, tell me the market for next week bullish or bear? hmmn: Sir, tell me the market for next week bullish or bear? Anil Manghnani: It could give you small pull backs but current charts suggest that each pull back will be sold in to partha_sista: your view on RELIANCE CAPITAL , RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS, both are touching new lows even though their businesses are good. Should we buy, or wait Anil Manghnani: wait as i feel the ADAG group is most suseptible to more declines ksdinesh: enough negative bais on broking stks. will it see uplevel within 2-3 months Anil Manghnani: Difficult. If markets remain dull and keep falling the there are less people trading so overall brokerages will reduce leading to earnings declines and downgrades for brokerage stocks. In addition many of them have opened branches which is another problem. virgovim: can we still go short on RNRL ? Anil Manghnani: short on rise may be close to 123 Anil Manghnani: Thank You Anil Manghnani: h Anil Manghnani: Have a nice week end Anil Manghnani: no disclosures |
13 March 2008
12 March 2008
GMR – take a bow!
Now for some news from Bangalore or should we say, Bengaluru? Just when all expected to see two new airports taking off from this month, Hyderabad and Bangalore, news comes in that the airport at Bangalore has been delayed.
Originally scheduled to open on the 30th of March, the airport will now put off by almost a month due to safety concerns and poor road connectivity from the city to the airport. Airports Authority of India (AAI), which reviewed the preparedness of the new greenfield airport, is not satisfied with the works of the airport operator. Bengaluru International Airport (BIAL) was built in a consortium led by Siemens, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Unique Zurich Airport, Karnataka government’s KSIIDC and AAI. Siemens holds 40% in BIAL, Unique Zurich and L&T hold 17% each in the company.
Another bone of contention is the levy of the user development fee (UDF). Though BIAL agreed to a reduced fee of Rs.240-plus taxes for domestic passengers and Rs.520-plus taxes for international passengers for the first two months, there is major grouse as the other new airport, opening on 16th March, led by the GMR Group, is not only meeting the opening deadline but has also decided to waive off the UDF for the initial two months. The swanky airport is scheduled to be inaugurated by UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi on March 14.
This delay by BIAL raises some serious questions about the credibility of high caliber companies like L&T and Siemens. These companies have taken up much larger projects and have been in the industry for ages, so how come they could not do their job well. Compared to them GMR is a new kid on the block and yet it has successfully managed to wrap up its work within schedule. Clearly, Siemens and L&T need to relook at where things went wrong or else, others will have to relook at them, from an investment point of view and also from handing over mega projects to them. GMR Infra, take a bow!
11 March 2008
10 March 2008
10-03-08 Stock queries by Mr SP Tulsian.
Query by Bhavesh,
Godrej Consumer -Rights Entitlement Ratio 1:7, If i am holding 100 shares then how much share i will be allocated? Will the price of the share wil be divided by 7 ? Can you please explain this..
Ans : In view of rights at Rs.123 per share and market price of Rs.132 no significant change. You will get 14 shares at Rs.123 per share.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by himanshu,
sir,if the bull run is over and we arein a bear phase for 1-2 years .kindly advice as i am holding untech, hdfc bank, icici bank ,abb,powergrid, hindustan const and siemens. i wish to create some cash, in case bearrun) for other commitments like lic ,taxes etc.
Ans : We have not entered in bear phase and all your stocks are fundamentally strong. Remain invested.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Bhavesh,
Godrej Consumer, Should i buy this stock ? What is target in next 2 year?
Ans : Buying is advised at Rs.132 and price of Rs.200 is possible in the next 2 years.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Gaurav Sood,
With a 24 months view , pls. advise on -: NRC (Rs.34) , HFCL (Rs.48) , NOIDATOLL (Rs.39), HINDMOTOR (Rs.46), BINDALAGRO (Rs.43) , UCOBANK(Rs.58), MARG CONST. (Rs.430) ... If possible , can U give approx. price at that time for these ?
Ans : All would rise by 30% on annualised basis, average. Remain invested in all for about 24 months.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by sameer,
Sir, I am out of the market since last 45 days. I am seating with 10.00 lacs cash and waiting for appropriate time to invest with a time horizon of 6 to 9 months.Sir advise me for following questions.... 1. Whcih stocks and at what price advisabel to enter to get atleast 40 % return ?
Ans : Go for RIL, GMR Infra, J P Associates, Kernex Micro, IFCI,
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Harish,
Bank of India @ 360, Central bank @85,DCB@89,Power finance @185, Bank of rajashtan@140.Should I hold from one year or sell on rise.
Ans : Hold all for about one year.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by amar,
Hello Tulsiji, i am sending this 5th time pls suggest to me abt GMDC I have brought 2000@600. Should i average at current levels also What is 6 months target
Ans : GMDC has proposed bonus of 1 : 1 and the present price is cum bonus. Buying can be made at present level of Rs.320 as an effective price of Rs.450 is likely in the next 6 months.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by BVENKATESH,
Will nuclear treaty impact stock market in near term.
Ans : Commercially it would be beneficial but politcally if Left withdraws support temporary uncertainty would get created due to general elections which otherwise would be largely in the interest of the market.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by BRAJ MOHAN,
SIR AS PER YOUR ADVICE I HAVE 265 SHARE OF DHANLAXMI BANK FOR DEC.07 WE HAVE HEARD THIS BANK ISSUED BONUS SHARE 1:1 BUT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED BONUS SHARE TILL DATE, SO PLEASE ADVISE ME HOW MUCH IT WILL TAKE TO TIME BONUS SHARE CREDIT MY ACCOUNT WHAT IS THE DATE... THAKING YOU BRAJ MOHAN
Ans : Bank has announced rights at Rs.62 per share in the ratio of 1 : 1 and not bonus.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by m.anandhakumar,
sir i have 4000 noida toll@ 28 for long term (7-8 years).please advice some other script below 50rs for 10 years holding.
Ans : Noida Toll is a great stock to remain invested with such a long term view. Go for GMR Infra at Rs.150 or IFCI at Rs.50.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by ashok mehan,
Without nuclear power it is not possible to survive, keeping in view power demand? If nuclear deal reaches it target which companies will be benefited?
Ans : NTPC and Tata Power. Areva T & D would gain in equipment making side.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by selva,
Dear sir, I have 160 JPAssociates @ Rs. 356. I am ready to sell at 10% lose. When can i sell?
Ans : Wait for alteast 6 months.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by P h reddy,
I have 400 shares of asian electronics @230/- what are the future for short and long term view.
Ans : Due to some of the orders having not booked by the company in December 07 quarter, performance of the company for the quarter was subdued. This is just one quarter pain and things would improve hereon. A good buy at Rs.205 levels with long term view.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by P h reddy,
I have 100 shares of asian hotels @800/- what are the future for short and long term view.
Ans : Need to take a long term call as FY 09 EPS is likely to be close to Rs.70 and presently stock is discounted by just 8 times.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Lmshah,
what bottomlevel you envisage for reliance pack
Ans : Seems to have reached for all Reliance Group stocks including Mukesh and Anil group.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by abhishek,
sir,should one enter nalwa sons at current levels?its mkt cap is close to 560 cr while it has holdings worth 1430 cr in various o p jindal group companies besides cash and unquoted investments.what would you say?
Ans : Due to stake in various companies as Promoters holding such companies are always ruling at 30% to 40% of its NAV. Considering this, buying is not advised in the stock.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Rupesh,
Sir, Can i buy National steel at this level for a period of 12 months
Ans : Not advised.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by rr velkumar,
sir i have 100 infosys @2250 at one year before wheather hold and sell and mahaindra&mahaindra 25 @900 what i do pl advice
Ans : Hold both.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Shobha,
Dear sir.I am holding some Tata Steel CCPS which were allotted to me in the rights issue.So now should i sell some of these and buy Tata Steel Shares at current levels? And also is it time to invest in Asian Electronics Ltd? Plz advice .Thankyou very much.
Ans : Buying is advised in Asian Electronics while hold Tata Steel CCPS.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by SALIL,
Respected Sir, pl. reply to my query this time as i am writing to you fourth time. pl. suggest wheather buying is adviced in CMC ,ALFA LAVAL, HYDRO S & S IND. at current levels ? plz..... reply. regards, salil
Ans : Go for other stocks and not what you have suggested.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by ismail,
sir, holding 130 shares of hoteleela @ 66.i am a long term investor can hold for 10-15 years if give good returns. plz advise. what is the future of hotel industries for a long term perspective? thanks
Ans : Good stock and even hotel industry has bright future ahead including Hotel Leela.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by KALPESH.D.,
DEAR SIR, I HAVE B.G.R. ENERGY, EDELWEISS CAPITAL, MUNDRA PORT & SEZ, R- POWER, FUTURE CAPITAL -- ALL STOCKS @ IPO PRICE. WHAT CAN I DO SELL/ HOLD ???
Ans :
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by ramesh,
sir, REC alotted - 80 nos.What to do?
Ans : Hold for 3 months atleast.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by KALPESH.D.,
DEAR SIR, NOW IS IT RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN MARKET FOR 6 TO 12 MONTH ? IF YES IN WHICH SECTOR/ STOCKS ?OR MARKET STILL TO GO DOWN ?? OR WAIT & WATCH ??
Ans : Right time to invest by taking stock specific call.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Amandeep,
Sir, should one opt for the Indian Hotels and SBI rights issue?
Ans : Yes. For Indian Hotel don't opt for NCD.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Kanagasabai Ashok,
Dear Sir, I am having 50 shares of Reliance Power bought at an average price of Rs406 on the day of listing. Please tell me if i can still hold the stock. Whether I will get the bonus shares if i, for some reason, am not able to apply by postal ballot? Thanks.
Ans : If you hold the stocks till record date, you would receive bonus. No need to participate in postal ballot. Record date is likely by first week of April.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by vinay,
i am holding 150 shares of essar steel what i should i do? should i sell them to company which is buying @ 47/- per shares or i remain invested
Ans : If you remain invested, it would remain non-traded, but may gain good value in the next 12 - 36 months, and hence you may get better offer at that moment. Presently, promoters are buying it at Rs.48 per share upto 30-06-08. In view of present state of market, sell it and invest in other stocks available at quite cheap valuations.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by kamlesh,
holding 80hilton metal@70ipo assumingbankfd can hold for 3years. cant book huge lose please advice thanks.
Ans : Remain invested with 12 months view.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by pankaj,
Dear Sir, I have some cash around 3 lakhs on my hand and wants to invest in Stock for the first time. Could you please guide me in which stocks to invest ? Regards, Pankaj
Ans : Mid-Cap and frontliners, both have become quite attractive. You can go for RIL, GMR Infra, J P Associates, Bank of Rajasthan, India Glycol to name some.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
Query by Mitheela,
Sir, I sent you so many messages but didnt get reply yet. Please tell me about RIIL & Jaicorp I purchased at on a very higher level and got stuck with these stocks what to do its down more than 60% from purchased price.
Ans : Keep a view of atleast 12 months as you would recover your cost.
Query Answered On Mon 10th Mar 2008
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