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07 March 2008

Seven ways to survive a Stock Market Correction!

1. Stop Listening To Analysts

Most analysts in the media instead of providing you with a solution will just confuse you. Somebody will say everything is doomed while others will say things are great in the long term. Forget listening to analysts- most of them won’t be of any help. The reason people listen to analysts is because they are looking for peace and hope. Trust me you will get none of that by listening to somebody else. Peace and hope are all within you.

2. Stop Staring At Your Portfolio Every Thirty Minutes

Another mistake people make is that they get up every morning and wait for the markets to open. Once markets open they start staring at their stock prices. A fall makes you feel worse and small rise makes you feel a little better. This won’t help either. Instead keep track of the fundamentals of your company every time the results are out. If your company is profitable and growing - be happy. If it isn’t, find out if you need to exit. The stock price will catch up in the near future if business is growing. Do you stare at your money kept in a bank FD everyday? Most probably not. Use the same principle when you invest in stocks or mutual funds.

3. Be Patient

Many of you might not have a lot of cash to buy cheap now; however please be patient with whatever you have bought. Even the youngest billionaire on Earth today is 23 years old. It took him 23 years to be a billionaire and he didn’t do it in few days or weeks. The youngest billionaire probably in history is 23-year-old Mark Zuckerberg - the founder of the social networking site-Facebook.

4. Speak To Actual Investors With Experience

Instead of interacting with analysts or your broker, speak with people who are actual investors and who have been in the market for longer periods of time than you. They will tell you how they have survived various stock market corrections and what has made them richer. Read and learn more about people who have actually created wealth and sustained it over a long period of time.

5. Stop Following Crazy Tips

Please for heaven’s sake stop following ‘hot’ tips which promise to make you a millionaire in a matter of months. Maybe the ‘hot’ tip is only meant for billionaires who would end up as millionaires in case they do follow the tip. If it seems to good to be true, it is probably just a scam, which hopes to take money away from retail investors and put them in the hands of greedy manipulators. Similarly stop following rumours about how fundamentally strong companies are going to be shut down and go bankrupt in the next few months. Use your own head and trust yourself.

6. Understand Market Cycles

Every asset class has a cycle. Stock markets, mutual funds, real estate all move in cycles. Please realize that nothing can keep going up forever in a single direction. There will be phases when prices will come down and again move up. If you go back into history you will see several instances when stock prices came down, however over a period of time quality companies always reward investors. Understand market cycles, and don’t become a slave to them.

7. Follow The Guru

Today the richest man on earth, Warren Buffett, is an investor who has created wealth because he has stayed away from what everybody else is doing and has simply invested in quality companies for the long term. He invested in Gillette, for the simple reason that he believed that men won’t stop shaving. It makes sense to follow, as I call him, “The Guru” and think long term and remember people who create wealth do things that others don’t.

I’m sure if you follow the simple techniques above you will be a much happier and a calmer investor. Investing is about controlling your emotions and being disciplined about what you do.

Happy Wealth Creation!

www.happionaire.com

07-03-08 Chat script Mr Anil Manghnani.

moderator: Welcome to poweryourtrade.com chat. Mr Anil Manghnani will soon join us.

Anil Manghnani: Good Afternoon

ASLAM007: Sir, do you think that the Reliance industries will come down below Rs.2218 today? And what will be the lowest point which the Nifty touches today?

Anil Manghnani: I am worried about the market right now. If it closes where it is now it will be for the first time since 2004 below the 50 week Moving Average.

Anil Manghnani: That would suggest a bear phase which will not be good for any investor or trader.

Anil Manghnani: The immediate support for reliance is at 2120

NandkumarGangan: Good Afternoon, What about banking sector, i am been stuck in bank of india march Futures at 349

Anil Manghnani: Although the sector charts were good prior to the budget I feel with the non clarification as to how the PSU Banks will be paid for the 60000 cr loan waiver has left a lot of confusion for bank stocks in the market. In addition the ICICI bank announcement of sub prime losses could not have come at a worse time. Stay away from this sector till some more clarity emerges

sanjay_gurgaon: Sir, what`s your call for Unitech (@300) and Rel Energy (@1525), keeping in view six months time

Anil Manghnani: Unitech will now fall further to 250 levels. Reliance pack avoid as when the market breaks important levels it is the strongest pack where major positions have been built that will fall first.

innovasec: WHICH STOCK SHOULD I BUY THIS MOVEMENT FOR LONG TERM FOR 3 TO 5 YEARS

Anil Manghnani: Wait as there can be a lot more pain left in the system

Arkhade: Sir can i buy maruti at this level

Anil Manghnani: Buy closer to 850-800 levels for trading

kumar.amit: What is your take onthe markets.

Anil Manghnani: Like I said we are risking entering a bear phase today and if that happens then levels do not mean much

amol321: good afternoon sir,ur views on unitech.

Anil Manghnani: Another sector which has huge positions built up that are now getting sold. So wait to buy closer to 250

AASHRITHREDDY: I HAVE REL 200 @ 1150 WHAT SHOULD I DO NOW? SHOULD I HOLD OR SELL ?

Anil Manghnani: Sell I am worried about the whole ADAG pack

ASHISbXA: SIR I`M HOLDING ASHOKLEYLAND FUTURE @37.85 WHT SHOULD ID O

shekar2004: market going down is a signal of bear market plz tell me boldly and let me know the levels to confirm bear market ?

Anil Manghnani: Sell Ashok leyland

Anil Manghnani: Markets are already in a problem a close below 16577 and 4890 today will be a confirmation

virgovim: Hi Anil, been invested arnd 2-3yrs...holding RCOM arnd 373, unitech at 141, shd I sell and re-enter later or just ride this out ?

tufayl: Been buying GMR for 250 till now, my average is 190 now. should i average more, or should exit?

tufayl: Been buying GMR for 250 till now, my average is 190 now. should i average more, or should exit?

Anil Manghnani: I would sell even if you were holding for 2-3 years

tufayl: Been buying GMR for 250 till now, my average is 190 now. should i average more, or should exit?

Anil Manghnani: Strictly no averaging just look to reduce positions

ashishkukreja: Whats your call on suzlon and nagarjuna fert?

Anil Manghnani: Look at opportunities to reduce long positions

aahuja.qa: Sir What do you have to say about Indiabulls Finance at this stage?

Anil Manghnani: I feel finance companies and brokerage houses will be most hit going forward in the event of bear phase so be careful

rampratap.yadav: Is jans intra-day low on nifty an strong support to go out and buy, wht are u`r charts signalling

Anil Manghnani: They may hold and give a trading bounce initially but my gut feeling is in the event of a bear phase they will eventually break

Prashanthbs: Sir , what is the long term view on RPL (for 1-to-2 years) , bought at Rs 140

Anil Manghnani: sell now to buy when market settles or bottoms out

nnadkarni: How much of the current Market Activity is affected by FII`s

Anil Manghnani: A major amount as they are selling every day. Also remember they are selling due to their own redemption pressure in the country they originate. So if people in the U.S. are feeling the pinch of recession and also with the sub prime problems there will be redemption pressures where the FII's have to sell

Prashanthbs: sir is it right time to invest in mutual fund

Anil Manghnani: No

ALOKSUMAN: SIR, SHOULD I BUY RELIANCE PETROLIUM AND SALE 150 CALL TO EARN PREMIUM FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH

Anil Manghnani: No

arvind1376: Asian Electrincs@412 sould i hold it may recover holding time is not an issue or book losses And same is for Nocil@33

Anil Manghnani: If we do not recover today by the end this selling phase could take a while longer

Anil Manghnani: There seems to be a general question for many stocks as to whether one should hold or sell. My feeling is that we have already broken a major uptrend which will get confirmed today on any close below 16577 & 4890. So after that holding stock as a whole is a major problem

jayinusa: good afternoon sir , as u said if we go into bear market how much time it will take to come out of it , and if its bear market what will be the support for it.

Anil Manghnani: There will be many trading supports but I doubt they will hold. The immediate supports are at 15700/15332/14700/14200/14100

Rajkumarb: sir.. can we go short on nifty...

Anil Manghnani: From now onwards any rise would be a short if the bear phase is confirmed today

prinkit: how is rnrl loking to u?

Anil Manghnani: The last support is now at 110 below that it is a sell

venkatesh_v: how is nifty futures level sir??

Anil Manghnani: Nifty spot at 4711 then 4448.5

sameer.ahuja81: ur view on chambal fert pls?

Anil Manghnani: Weak broke down after the budget day

jrajesh00: sir is rpl a good buy at 100

Anil Manghnani: Difficult to say now as I would like to see that chart if it fell all the way to 100 but yes it would be a support as it touched around those levels on JAN 22

baji.sahana: Is 4000 on Nifty a reality now?

Anil Manghnani: Reality is a word I never use but yes possibilities are there. I think the key would be 4448.5 if that is broken which I think could happen then many supports will not hold

ManjunathR: Sir, Is it right time to buy ADLAB ?

Anil Manghnani: No avoid ADAG for now

rampratap.yadav: u said ADAG group is weak on chart, does that mean that relcap can break 978-1000 support which was the low of august 2007.

Anil Manghnani: I feel many of them could correct significantly with the news that SEBI is investigating their last year's major move

subhashgunda: how about TCS?.. I am holding 540 shares @1040.. shall I hold?

Anil Manghnani: IT is defensive so can hold I feel at most they could test their Jan lows and also if market corrects further rupee could weaken which is plus for IT

rampratap.yadav: will august 2007 low on nifty be tested incase 4445 doesn`t hold??? if the 4445 support is broken how should one trade or invest in the market

Anil Manghnani: Then you short on every rise

mukeshwadhwani: SIR,CAN I GO SHORT ON NIFTY @ CURRENT LEVELS ?

Anil Manghnani: yes but then be patient

skmhu: What level SBI , RIL ,L

Anil Manghnani: No long term buys as of now

venkatesh_v: I have a 5 lots of Nifty March in long pos bought at 5250 level. so far i have adjusted m2m some how. what is ur sugeestion hold or sell

Anil Manghnani: keep reducing longs

sarmatvrk: what is your advice for small investors at the present status of markets? should we hold or book losses and get out of the market?

Anil Manghnani: book losses

mukeshwadhwani: SIR ,U R TOP STOCK PICKS @ NIFTY 4500 LEVELS ?

Anil Manghnani: Need to wait and see individual chart patterns at that time but I would stick to defensive like pharma fmcg auto avoid recent momentum stocks

hrishike103: Your views on IFCI,Nagarjuna ferti, RNRL and NeyLignite Please?

Anil Manghnani: Avoid momentum stocks

mukeshwadhwani: SIR, WHT SHUD BE STOP LOSS FOR NIFTY SHORT POSITION ?

mukeshwadhwani: SIR, WHT SHUD BE STOP LOSS FOR NIFTY SHORT POSITION ?

Anil Manghnani: the 50 week MA which will change every week currently at 4890

mukeshwadhwani: SIR, U R VIEW ON TTML @ 35.00 10000 SHARES ?

Anil Manghnani: sell momentum stocks

narendrasoni83: What about JP Associates ??

Anil Manghnani: avoid

kalpitk1: should i sell rnrl? will i get it at lower level?

kalpitk1: should i sell rnrl? will i get it at lower level?

Anil Manghnani: stop loss at 110

vikas iocl: SIR.IAM FED UP WITH THIS MARKET.I HAVE INVESTED NEARLY 9LACS IN EQUITY.NOW I AM IN LOSS OF 2LACS.MY VIEW IS THAT I SHOULD NOT SELL ANY STOCK IN LOSS AS I AM LONG TERM INVESTOR. IS THIS MY VIEW IS RIGHT OR WRONG

vikas iocl: SIR.IAM FED UP WITH THIS MARKET.I HAVE INVESTED NEARLY 9LACS IN EQUITY.NOW I AM IN LOSS OF 2LACS.MY VIEW IS THAT I SHOULD NOT SELL ANY STOCK IN LOSS AS I AM LONG TERM INVESTOR. IS THIS MY VIEW IS RIGHT OR WRONG

vikas iocl: SIR.IAM FED UP WITH THIS MARKET.I HAVE INVESTED NEARLY 9LACS IN EQUITY.NOW I AM IN LOSS OF 2LACS.MY VIEW IS THAT I SHOULD NOT SELL ANY STOCK IN LOSS AS I AM LONG TERM INVESTOR. IS THIS MY VIEW IS RIGHT OR WRONG

Anil Manghnani: We are not a value market but a growth market. In value markets we have long term investors. In growth markets it is all about speculative trading. Also if you are a long term investor then by definition you should not be looking at your portfolio value every day. My view is that you will see lower levels. Call is yours now

naileshm: What to do with Reliance capital

Anil Manghnani: sell

jyotirmay1977: Sir whats ur view on BHEL?

Anil Manghnani: sell

dha78958: sir, what are your views on jp associates

Anil Manghnani: avoid

rampratap.yadav: i didn`t find SEBI investigation being done on ADAG group were was it reported or is it just market rumor

Anil Manghnani: it is a headline on DNA money

vikasawal: Should we start bottom fishing from now onwards in good quality mid cap stocks??

Anil Manghnani: strictly no

let market find its bottom you do not try to do so

gandhambhaskar: hi sir, pl adviceus the most attractive investment oppertunities you see right now, keeping 6 months to 1 year time frame

gandhambhaskar: hi sir, pl adviceus the most attractive investment oppertunities you see right now, keeping 6 months to 1 year time frame

Anil Manghnani: wait Fixed Deposits are good for the time being

Anil Manghnani: Thank You

Anil Manghnani: Have a nice weekend

Anil Manghnani: Stay away from markets for now

Anil Manghnani: No disclosures

07-0308 Midday Power Calls. PYT.

07-03-08 PYT.

07-03-08 Calls By VJ.

GMRI : Home user fee grounded

GMR Infrastructure's take-off from the Hyderabad airport isn't going to be as profitable as it had planned.

The holding company, which will run the Delhi and Hyderabad airports, has decided not to charge domestic passengers a user development fee at the Hyderabad airport; the Rs 1,697 crore firm had been hoping to collect a stiff user fee of between Rs 600-700 from domestic travellers.

International passengers, however, will have to cough up $25. Moreover, GMRI is understood to have refrained from upping the landing and parking charges for aircraft.

As a result, the net asset value for the Hyderabad airport could be lower by about 25 per cent, estimate analysts, some of whom had pencilled in a charge of Rs 725 per passenger from 50 per cent of domestic passengers travelling on full service airlines.

With the charges for landing and parking charges not to be applied for the present, analysts have also shaved off about 5 per cent from the sum-of –the –parts valuation for the stock for FY09; many of them had factored in a 12-14 per cent increase.

As such, the company is now being valued at between Rs180-190. Over the past one year, the stock has been an outperformer.

However, from its peak of Rs 263 in December 2007, the stock has corrected by over 40 per cent and now trades at Rs 156. That leaves an upside of nearly 20 per cent.
While the market has been weak, the GMRI stock has also corrected because of legal issues relating to long-term refundable deposits from third party developers for real estate near the Delhi International Airport(DIAL) and revenue sharing with the Airports Authority of India(AAI).
Besides, there are some issues regarding the proposed international airport near Greater Noida and its impact on DIAL.
GMRI, which also has a presence in the roads and power sectors, is expected to post revenues of Rs 1900 crore in FY08 and up that to Rs 2500 crore in FY09 by which time the operating margin should rise to between 36-38 per cent and net profits to about Rs 200 crore.